Economic Structural Adjustment Promoting Sustainable Growth in Shanghai: A Two-Decade Study (2004–2023)

This study investigates the structural transformation of Shanghai’s economy (2004–2023), analyzing the interplay between industrial shifts and sustainable growth. While prior work has focused on short-term trends or isolated sectors, we provide the first comprehensive analysis of Shanghai’s two-decade transition from manufacturing to services, leveraging annual nominal GDP data and three forecasting models (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model ARIMA, Support Vector Machine SVM, and Grey Model GM). Our findings reveal that the tertiary sector’s contribution surged from 50.8% to 75.2% of GDP, driven by finance, technology, and real estate, while the secondary sector declined to 24.6%. The autoregressive integrated moving average ARIMA(1,1) model outperformed alternatives (mean absolute percentage error 2.97%), projecting GDP growth to CNY 60,321.54 trillion by 2026. Crucially, we demonstrate that Shanghai’s structural evolution aligns with advanced urban economies (e.g., New York, Tokyo), yet retains distinct industrial resilience due to China’s dual-circulation policy. These results challenge assumptions about manufacturing decline, instead highlighting a rebalancing toward high-value-added sectors. The study contributes (1) a validated framework for forecasting urban GDP in policy-stabilized economies and (2) empirical evidence for prioritizing tertiary innovation in sustainable development strategies. Policymakers and researchers can leverage these insights to navigate trade-offs between growth, equity, and environmental goals in rapidly urbanizing regions.