Effects of increased predation risk on the population dynamics of migratory birds: Optimal annual routine simulations

O Feró, Z Barta, AI Houston, JM McNamara, A Hedenström

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle (Academic Journal)peer-review

Abstract

Predation risk is an important factor that affects migratory bird populations on their breeding and wintering grounds, as well as along their migration routes. Here we investigate how a sudden increase in predation risk in these areas, such as hunting, influences the population dynamics of migrants. To do so, we simulate a population in which birds behave according to an optimal strategy determined by an annual routine model. In the model, decisions depend on the time of year, energy reserves, breeding status, experience, flight feather quality and location. Food at a location varies independently of food at other locations over a year, and there is explicit density dependence in the food supply. After tests have been run for several undisturbed years, predation risk is systematically increased at different sites, and changes in the size of the modeled population observed. It is assumed that the modeled birds do not have enough time to adapt evolutionarily to the new circumstances, and thus continue to follow the optimal policy for the original environment. Using this approach, we can estimate, for example, how events on wintering sites can affect population trends on breeding grounds. Another interesting feature of the model is that it enables investigation of physiological state to establish whether any of the state variables can predict the response of the population to hypothetical environmental change.
Translated title of the contributionEffects of increased predation risk on the population dynamics of migratory birds: Optimal annual routine simulations
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)165 - 166
Number of pages2
JournalJournal of Ornithology
Volume147 (Suppl 1)
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Aug 2006

Bibliographical note

Publisher: Springer
Name and Venue of Conference: XXIV International Ornithological Congress, Hamburg
Medium/genre: Meeting Abstract
Other identifier: IDS number 081JF

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