Efficient local behavioral-change strategies to reduce the spread of epidemics in networks

Yilei Bu*, Steve Gregory, Harriet L. Mills

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle (Academic Journal)peer-review

15 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

It has recently become established that the spread of infectious diseases between humans is affected not only by the pathogen itself but also by changes in behavior as the population becomes aware of the epidemic, for example, social distancing. It is also well known that community structure (the existence of relatively densely connected groups of vertices) in contact networks influences the spread of disease. We propose a set of local strategies for social distancing, based on community structure, that can be employed in the event of an epidemic to reduce the epidemic size. Unlike most social distancing methods, ours do not require individuals to know the disease state (infected or susceptible, etc.) of others, and we do not make the unrealistic assumption that the structure of the entire contact network is known. Instead, the recommended behavior change is based only on an individual's local view of the network. Each individual avoids contact with a fraction of his/her contacts, using knowledge of his/her local network to decide which contacts should be avoided. If the behavior change occurs only when an individual becomes ill or aware of the disease, these strategies can substantially reduce epidemic size with a relatively small cost, measured by the number of contacts avoided.

Original languageEnglish
Article number042801
Number of pages12
JournalPhysical Review E: Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics
Volume88
Issue number4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 3 Oct 2013

Keywords

  • LARGE SOCIAL NETWORK
  • COMMUNITY STRUCTURE
  • COMPLEX NETWORKS
  • ATTACK

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