Ensemble averaging and mean squared error

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Abstract

In fields such as climate science, it is common to compile an ensemble of different simulators for the same underlying process. It is a striking observation that the ensemble mean often out-performs at least half of the ensemble members in mean squared error (measured with respect to observations). In fact, as demonstrated in the most recent IPCC report, the ensemble mean often out-performs all or almost all of the ensemble members across a range of climate variables. This paper shows that these could be mathematical results based on convexity and averaging, but with implications for the properties of the current generation of climate
simulators.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)8865-8870
Number of pages6
JournalJournal of Climate
Volume29
Issue number4
Early online date16 Sep 2016
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 23 Nov 2016

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