Ensemble flood forecasting: A review

H. L. Cloke*, F. Pappenberger

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle (Academic Journal)peer-review

573 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Operational medium range flood forecasting systems are increasingly moving towards the adoption of ensembles of numerical weather predictions (NWP), known as ensemble prediction systems (EPS), to drive their predictions. We review the scientific drivers of this shift towards such 'ensemble flood forecasting' and discuss several of the questions surrounding best practice in using EPS in flood forecasting systems. We also review the literature evidence of the 'added value' of flood forecasts based on EPS and point to remaining key challenges in using EPS successfully.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)613-626
Number of pages14
JournalJournal of Hydrology
Volume375
Issue number3-4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 15 Sep 2009

Keywords

  • Ensemble prediction system
  • Flood prediction
  • Numerical weather prediction
  • Streamflow
  • Uncertainty

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