TY - JOUR
T1 - Estimating COVID-19-Related Infections, Deaths, and Hospitalizations in Iran Under Different Physical Distancing and Isolation Scenarios
AU - Sharifi, Hamid
AU - Jahani, Yunes
AU - Mirzazadeh, Ali
AU - Gohari, Milad Ahmadi
AU - Nakhaeizadeh, Mehran
AU - Shokoohi, Mostafa
AU - Eybpoosh, Sana
AU - Tohidinik, Hamid Reza
AU - Mostafavi, Ehsan
AU - Khalili, Davood
AU - Nazari, Seyed Saeed Hashemi
AU - Karamouzian, Mohammad
AU - Haghdoost, Ali Akbar
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2022, Kerman University of Medical Sciences. All rights reserved.
PY - 2022/3/1
Y1 - 2022/3/1
N2 - Background: Iran is one of the first few countries that was hit hard with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We aimed to estimate the total number of COVID-19 related infections, deaths, and hospitalizations in Iran under different physical distancing and isolation scenarios. Methods: We developed a susceptible-exposed-infected/infectious-recovered/removed (SEIR) model, parameterized to the COVID-19 pandemic in Iran. We used the model to quantify the magnitude of the outbreak in Iran and assess the effectiveness of isolation and physical distancing under five different scenarios (A: 0% isolation, through E: 40% isolation of all infected cases). We used Monte-Carlo simulation to calculate the 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). Results: Under scenario A, we estimated 5 196 000 (UI 1 753 000-10 220 000) infections to happen till mid-June with 966 000 (UI 467 800-1 702 000) hospitalizations and 111 000 (UI 53 400-200 000) deaths. Successful implantation of scenario E would reduce the number of infections by 90% (ie, 550 000) and change the epidemic peak from 66 000 on June 9, to 9400 on March 1, 2020. Scenario E also reduces the hospitalizations by 92% (ie, 74 500), and deaths by 93% (ie, 7800). Conclusion: With no approved vaccination or therapy available, we found physical distancing and isolation that include public awareness and case-finding and isolation of 40% of infected people could reduce the burden of COVID-19 in Iran by 90% by mid-June.
AB - Background: Iran is one of the first few countries that was hit hard with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We aimed to estimate the total number of COVID-19 related infections, deaths, and hospitalizations in Iran under different physical distancing and isolation scenarios. Methods: We developed a susceptible-exposed-infected/infectious-recovered/removed (SEIR) model, parameterized to the COVID-19 pandemic in Iran. We used the model to quantify the magnitude of the outbreak in Iran and assess the effectiveness of isolation and physical distancing under five different scenarios (A: 0% isolation, through E: 40% isolation of all infected cases). We used Monte-Carlo simulation to calculate the 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). Results: Under scenario A, we estimated 5 196 000 (UI 1 753 000-10 220 000) infections to happen till mid-June with 966 000 (UI 467 800-1 702 000) hospitalizations and 111 000 (UI 53 400-200 000) deaths. Successful implantation of scenario E would reduce the number of infections by 90% (ie, 550 000) and change the epidemic peak from 66 000 on June 9, to 9400 on March 1, 2020. Scenario E also reduces the hospitalizations by 92% (ie, 74 500), and deaths by 93% (ie, 7800). Conclusion: With no approved vaccination or therapy available, we found physical distancing and isolation that include public awareness and case-finding and isolation of 40% of infected people could reduce the burden of COVID-19 in Iran by 90% by mid-June.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85103604054&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.34172/ijhpm.2020.134
DO - 10.34172/ijhpm.2020.134
M3 - Article (Academic Journal)
C2 - 32772007
AN - SCOPUS:85103604054
SN - 2322-5939
VL - 11
SP - 334
EP - 343
JO - International Journal of Health Policy and Management
JF - International Journal of Health Policy and Management
IS - 3
ER -
