Evaluating heat extremes in the UK Climate Projections (UKCP18)

Alan T Kennedy-Asser*, Oliver D Andrews, Daniel M. Mitchell, Rachel Warren

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalLetter (Academic Journal)peer-review

5 Citations (Scopus)
21 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

In recent years, UK summer heatwaves have resulted in thousands of excess deaths, with both extreme temperatures and high humidity increasing health risks. Here, the UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) are compared to observational (HadUK-Grid) and reanalysis data (ERA5) to quantify model performance at capturing mean, extremes (95th to 99.5th percentiles) and variability in the climate state and heat stress metrics (simplified Wet Bulb Global Temperature, sWBGT; Humidex; Apparent Temperature). Simulations carried out for UKCP18 generally perform as well as or better than CMIP5 models in reproducing observed spatial patterns of UK climate relating to extreme heat, with RMSE values on average ~30 % less than for the CMIP5 models. Increasing spatial resolution in UKCP18 simulations is shown to yield a minor improvement in model performance (RMSE values on average ~5 % less) compared to observations, however there is considerable variability between ensemble members within resolution classes. For both UKCP18 and CMIP5 models, model error in capturing characteristics of extreme heat generally reduces when using heat stress metrics with a larger vapour pressure component, such as sWBGT. Finally, the 95th percentile of observed UK summer temperature is shown to have ~60 % greater interannual variability than the summer mean over the recent past (1981-2000). This effect is underestimated in UKCP18 models (~33 %) compared to HadUK-grid and ERA5. Compared to projected future changes in the global mean temperature, UK summer mean and 95th percentile temperatures are shown in increase at a faster rate than the global mean.
Original languageEnglish
Article number014039
Number of pages10
JournalEnvironmental Research Letters
Volume16
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 5 Jan 2021

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
AKA, OA and RW acknowledge support from UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) grant NE/S017267/1. We acknowledge the UK Meteorological Office for their work in preparing and making available the UKCP18 and HadUK-Grid data. ERA5 data was generated using Copernicus Climate Change Service information (2020).

Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.

Keywords

  • UKCP18
  • model evaluation
  • heatwaves
  • heat stress
  • climate

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