TY - JOUR
T1 - Expert elicitation on the uncertainties associated with chronic wasting disease
AU - Tyshenko, M G
AU - Oraby, Tamer
AU - Darshan, Shalu
AU - Westphal, Margit
AU - Croteau, Maxine
AU - Aspinall, Willy
AU - ElSaadany, Susie
AU - Krewski, Daniel
AU - Cashman, Neil
PY - 2016/9/1
Y1 - 2016/9/1
N2 - A high degree of uncertainty exists for chronic wasting disease (CWD) transmission factors in farmed and wild cervids. Evaluating the factors is important as it helps to inform future risk management strategies. Expert opinion is often used to assist decision making in a number of health, science, and technology domains where data may be sparse or missing. Using the Classical Model of elicitation, a group of experts was asked to estimate the most likely values for several risk factors affecting CWD transmission. The formalized expert elicitation helped structure the issues and hence provide a rational basis for estimating some transmission risk factors for which evidence is lacking. Considered judgments regarding environmental transmission, latency of CWD transmission, management, and species barrier were provided by the experts. Uncertainties for many items were determined to be large, highlighting areas requiring more research. The elicited values may be used as surrogate values until research evidence becomes available.
AB - A high degree of uncertainty exists for chronic wasting disease (CWD) transmission factors in farmed and wild cervids. Evaluating the factors is important as it helps to inform future risk management strategies. Expert opinion is often used to assist decision making in a number of health, science, and technology domains where data may be sparse or missing. Using the Classical Model of elicitation, a group of experts was asked to estimate the most likely values for several risk factors affecting CWD transmission. The formalized expert elicitation helped structure the issues and hence provide a rational basis for estimating some transmission risk factors for which evidence is lacking. Considered judgments regarding environmental transmission, latency of CWD transmission, management, and species barrier were provided by the experts. Uncertainties for many items were determined to be large, highlighting areas requiring more research. The elicited values may be used as surrogate values until research evidence becomes available.
U2 - 10.1080/15287394.2016.1174007
DO - 10.1080/15287394.2016.1174007
M3 - Article (Academic Journal)
C2 - 27556566
SN - 1528-7394
VL - 79
SP - 729
EP - 745
JO - Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health, Part A: Current Issues
JF - Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health, Part A: Current Issues
IS - 16-17
ER -