Expert elicitation on the uncertainties associated with chronic wasting disease

M G Tyshenko, Tamer Oraby, Shalu Darshan, Margit Westphal, Maxine Croteau, Willy Aspinall, Susie ElSaadany, Daniel Krewski, Neil Cashman

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle (Academic Journal)peer-review

3 Citations (Scopus)
70 Downloads (Pure)


A high degree of uncertainty exists for chronic wasting disease (CWD) transmission factors in farmed and wild cervids. Evaluating the factors is important as it helps to inform future risk management strategies. Expert opinion is often used to assist decision making in a number of health, science, and technology domains where data may be sparse or missing. Using the Classical Model of elicitation, a group of experts was asked to estimate the most likely values for several risk factors affecting CWD transmission. The formalized expert elicitation helped structure the issues and hence provide a rational basis for estimating some transmission risk factors for which evidence is lacking. Considered judgments regarding environmental transmission, latency of CWD transmission, management, and species barrier were provided by the experts. Uncertainties for many items were determined to be large, highlighting areas requiring more research. The elicited values may be used as surrogate values until research evidence becomes available.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)729-745
Number of pages17
JournalJournal of Toxicology and Environmental Health, Part A: Current Issues
Issue number16-17
Early online date24 Aug 2016
Publication statusPublished - 1 Sep 2016

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