Exploring public risk perception of multiple hazards through network analysis

In an increasingly complex world, people are exposed to a wide range of hazards, from climate change and economic crises to pandemics and natural threats. It is challenging to respond equally to every potential risk. Instead, individuals prioritize some risks over others, based on their perceived likelihood and impact, often shaped by personal experience. Nonetheless, how these perceptions are formed and whether they change over time remain unexplored. Our study investigates how public risk perceptions of nine hazards—epidemics, floods, droughts, wildfires, earthquakes, terrorist attacks, domestic violence, climate change, and economic crises—are interlinked and how these connections change with recent events. We analyze survey data from over 12,000 people in Italy and Sweden, collected during three different time points across the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a network analysis approach, we find that recent events, like increased number of COVID-19 cases, often become central to people’s risk perception. At the same time, some hazard connections remain consistent over time, suggesting a shared public understanding of their relationships. For example, wildfires, droughts, and floods formed a stable relationship in both countries, likely reflecting public awareness of their interconnected nature. Conversely, the hazard perceived as most likely or impactful often changes depending on recent local experiences, such as COVID-19 or terrorist attacks. This dual pattern, a changing component influenced by current events and a stable component rooted in common knowledge, suggests that public perception is both adaptive and enduring. Our findings have important implications for public health communication, early warning systems, and climate adaptation strategies. By recognizing how risk perceptions evolve, policymakers and practitioners can design more effective interventions that align with people’s lived experiences and their concerns, ultimately supporting better preparedness and risk reduction.