External validation of the improving partial risk adjustment in surgery (PRAIS-2) model for 30-day mortality after paediatric cardiac surgery

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle (Academic Journal)peer-review

Abstract

Objective: Independent temporal external validation of the improving partial risk adjustment in surgery model (PRAIS-2) to predict 30-day mortality in patients undergoing paediatric cardiac surgery.

Design: retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data.

Setting: Paediatric cardiac surgery

Intervention: PRAIS-2 validation was carried out using a two temporally different single centre (Bristol, UK) cohorts: Cohort 1 surgery undertaken from April 2004 to March 2009 and Cohort 2 from April 2015 to July 2019. For each subject PRAIS-2 score was calculated according to the original formula.

Participants: A total of 1352 (2004-2009) and 1197 (2015-2019) paediatric cardiac surgical procedures were included in the Cohort 1 and Cohort 2, respectively (median age at the procedure 6.3 and 7.1 months).

Primary and secondary outcome measures: PRAIS-2 performance was assessed in terms of discrimination by means of ROC curve analysis and calibration by using the calibration belt method.

Results: PRAIS-2 score showed excellent discrimination for both cohorts (AUC 0.72 (95%CI: 0.65 to 0.80) and 0.88 (95%CI: 0.82 to 0.93), respectively). While PRAIS-2 was only marginally calibrated in Cohort 1, with a tendency to underestimate risk in low risk and overestimate risk in high risk procedures (P-value = 0.033), validation in Cohort 2 showed good calibration with the 95% confidence belt containing the bisector for predicted mortality (P-value = 0.143). We also observed good prediction accuracy in the non-elective procedures (N = 483; AUC 0.78 (95%CI 0.68 to 0.87); Calibration belt containing the bisector (P-value=0.589).

Conclusions: In a single centre UK-based cohort, PRAIS-2 showed excellent discrimination and calibration in predicting 30-day mortality in paediatric cardiac surgery including in those undergoing non-elective procedures. Our results support a wider adoption of PRAIS-2 score in the clinical practice.
Original languageEnglish
JournalBMJ Open
Early online date27 Nov 2020
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 27 Nov 2020

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