Extreme Space Weather Impacts on GNSS Timing Signals for Electricity Grid Management

Extreme space weather events can have serious impacts on critical infrastructure, including Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). The use of GNSS, particularly as sources of accurate timing signals, is becoming more widespread, with one example being the measurement of electricity grid frequency and phase information to aid grid management and stability. Understanding the likelihood of extreme space weather impacts on GNSS timing signals is therefore becoming vital to maintain national electricity grid resilience. This study determines critical intensity thresholds above which the complete failure of a GNSS based timing system may occur. Solar radio bursts are identified as a simple example to investigate in more detail. The probability of occurrence of an extreme space weather event with an intensity equal to or greater than the critical intensity is estimated. Both a power law and extreme value theory were used to evaluate recurrence probabilities based on historical event frequencies. The probability was estimated to be between 3%–12% per decade to cause the complete failure of any GNSS-based timing system.