Factors influencing the detectability of early warning signals of population collapse

Christopher F Clements, John M Drake, Jason I Griffiths, Arpat Ozgul

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle (Academic Journal)

Abstract

The recent description of potentially generic early warning signals is a promising development that may help conservationists to anticipate a population's collapse prior to its occurrence. So far, the majority of such warning signals documented have been in highly controlled laboratory systems or in theoretical models. Data from wild populations, however, are typically restricted both temporally and spatially due to limited monitoring resources and intrinsic ecological heterogeneity-limitations that may affect the detectability of generic early warning signals, as they add additional stochasticity to population abundance estimates. Consequently, spatial and temporal subsampling may serve to either muffle or magnify early warning signals. Using a combination of theoretical models and analysis of experimental data, we evaluate the extent to which statistical warning signs are robust to data corruption.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)50-8
Number of pages9
JournalAmerican Naturalist
Volume186
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jul 2015

Keywords

  • Animals
  • Daphnia/physiology
  • Ecosystem
  • Models, Biological
  • Population Dynamics
  • Time Factors

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