Forecast convergence score: A forecaster's approach to analysing hydro-meteorological forecast systems

F. Pappenberger*, K. Bogner, F. Wetterhall, Y. He, H. L. Cloke, J. Thielen

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle (Academic Journal)peer-review

10 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In this paper the properties of a hydro-meteorological forecasting system for forecasting river flows have been analysed using a probabilistic forecast convergence score (FCS). The focus on fixed event forecasts provides a forecaster's approach to system behaviour and adds an important perspective to the suite of forecast verification tools commonly used in this field. A low FCS indicates a more consistent forecast. It can be demonstrated that the FCS annual maximum decreases over the last 10 years. With lead time, the FCS of the ensemble forecast decreases whereas the control and high resolution forecast increase. The FCS is influenced by the lead time, threshold and catchment size and location. It indicates that one should use seasonality based decision rules to issue flood warnings.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)27-32
Number of pages6
JournalAdvances in Geosciences
Volume29
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Dec 2011

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