From deciding to acting: hierarchical process modelling for problem structuring

Mike Yearworth, David A Lowe, Daniel Schien, Thomas A Walworth

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference Contribution (Conference Proceeding)

Abstract

We present a novel approach to problem structuring inspired by a software implementation of Interval Probability Theory (IPT) as an evidence combination method in Hierarchical Process Models (HPMs) using interval numbers expressed in Italian Flag notation. We first describe a Problem Structuring Method (PSM) based on HPM and designed using a generic constitutive definition of PSMs. We present the results of an implementation of the method demonstrating its practical utility. We then discuss the function and value of IPT in evaluating the consistency of the modelling process with particular focus on the meaning of the necessity and sufficiency conditions.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationCalculating and Communicating Uncertainty (CCU 2015)
Publication statusPublished - 2015
EventCalculating and Communicating Uncertainty (CCU 2015) - London, United Kingdom
Duration: 27 Jan 201528 Jan 2015

Conference

ConferenceCalculating and Communicating Uncertainty (CCU 2015)
CountryUnited Kingdom
CityLondon
Period27/01/1528/01/15

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