We present a novel approach to problem structuring inspired by a software implementation of Interval Probability Theory (IPT) as an evidence combination method in Hierarchical Process Models (HPMs) using interval numbers expressed in Italian Flag notation. We first describe a Problem Structuring Method (PSM) based on HPM and designed using a generic constitutive definition of PSMs. We present the results of an implementation of the method demonstrating its practical utility. We then discuss the function and value of IPT in evaluating the consistency of the modelling process with particular focus on the meaning of the necessity and sufficiency conditions.
|Title of host publication||Calculating and Communicating Uncertainty (CCU 2015)|
|Publication status||Published - 2015|
|Event||Calculating and Communicating Uncertainty (CCU 2015) - London, United Kingdom|
Duration: 27 Jan 2015 → 28 Jan 2015
|Conference||Calculating and Communicating Uncertainty (CCU 2015)|
|Period||27/01/15 → 28/01/15|