Genetic predisposition to high BMI, ultra-processed food consumptions in childhood, and adiposity in young adulthood: a 17-year prospective cohort study of 3061 individuals

Ziyi Zhou; Qiaosen Chen; Zhi Li; Shi Zhang; Solange Parra-Soto; Anqi Wang; Mengxi Du; Xinwen Xu; Zhe Fang; Yujia Lu; Yu Chen Zhao; Rona J. Strawbridge; Patrick Ip; Naveed Satter; Nicholas J. Timpson; Mingyang Song; Carlos Celis-Morales; Marc J. Gunter; Jill P. Pell; Edward Giovannucci; Frederick K. Ho

doi:10.1186/s12916-026-04764-5

Genetic predisposition to high BMI, ultra-processed food consumptions in childhood, and adiposity in young adulthood: a 17-year prospective cohort study of 3061 individuals

Ziyi Zhou, Qiaosen Chen, Zhi Li, Shi Zhang, Solange Parra-Soto, Anqi Wang, Mengxi Du, Xinwen Xu, Zhe Fang, Yujia Lu, Yu Chen Zhao, Rona J. Strawbridge, Patrick Ip, Naveed Satter, Nicholas J. Timpson, Mingyang Song, Carlos Celis-Morales, Marc J. Gunter, Jill P. Pell^*, Edward Giovannucci^*Frederick K. Ho^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article (Academic Journal) › peer-review

Abstract

Background:
Observational evidence suggests ultra-processed food (UPF) may contribute to obesity, but some people who consume a larger amount of UPF remain at normal weight. This study examined whether childhood UPF consumption was associated with obesity in early adulthood and whether the association was modified by genetic susceptibility to body mass index (BMI).

Methods:
This prospective cohort study included data from 3061 participants of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) in England with follow-up from 7 to 24 years. UPF consumption was calculated from food diaries based on the NOVA classification. LDpred2 was used to construct a polygenic score (PGS) for body mass index (BMI). Linear regression models were used to estimate the association between UPF intake at 7 years and BMI at 24 years. The PGS-UPF interaction was examined to see whether genetic susceptibility modifies the association between childhood UPF consumption and early adulthood BMI.

Results:
Each 10% increase in the proportion of total energy intake coming from UPF at 7 was associated with 0.21 (95% CI 0.05–0.37) kg/m2 higher BMI at 24, after adjusting for BMI at 7, age, sex, ethnicity, physical activity, socioeconomic position, and total energy intake. There is evidence for PGS-BMI interaction (0.19; 95% CI 0.02–0.36), and the UPF-BMI association was only retained in children with the highest genetic predisposition to higher BMI (0.74, 95% CI 0.07–1.42) in the subgroup analysis.

Conclusions:
UPF consumption in childhood is only associated with early adulthood obesity among children more genetically predisposed to higher BMI.

Original language	English
Article number	251
Number of pages	10
Journal	BMC Medicine
Volume	24
Issue number	1
Early online date	16 Apr 2026
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-026-04764-5
Publication status	E-pub ahead of print - 16 Apr 2026

Bibliographical note

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 3 Good Health and Well-being

Keywords

adiposity
genetic susceptibility
BMI
ultra-processed food
obesity

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Zhou, Z., Chen, Q., Li, Z., Zhang, S., Parra-Soto, S., Wang, A., Du, M., Xu, X., Fang, Z., Lu, Y., Zhao, Y. C., Strawbridge, R. J., Ip, P., Satter, N., Timpson, N. J., Song, M., Celis-Morales, C., Gunter, M. J., Pell, J. P., ... Ho, F. K. (2026). Genetic predisposition to high BMI, ultra-processed food consumptions in childhood, and adiposity in young adulthood: a 17-year prospective cohort study of 3061 individuals. BMC Medicine, 24(1), Article 251. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-026-04764-5

@article{ef5d89dfc9bc4549b57c68cb21489922,

title = "Genetic predisposition to high BMI, ultra-processed food consumptions in childhood, and adiposity in young adulthood: a 17-year prospective cohort study of 3061 individuals",

abstract = "Background: Observational evidence suggests ultra-processed food (UPF) may contribute to obesity, but some people who consume a larger amount of UPF remain at normal weight. This study examined whether childhood UPF consumption was associated with obesity in early adulthood and whether the association was modified by genetic susceptibility to body mass index (BMI). Methods: This prospective cohort study included data from 3061 participants of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) in England with follow-up from 7 to 24 years. UPF consumption was calculated from food diaries based on the NOVA classification. LDpred2 was used to construct a polygenic score (PGS) for body mass index (BMI). Linear regression models were used to estimate the association between UPF intake at 7 years and BMI at 24 years. The PGS-UPF interaction was examined to see whether genetic susceptibility modifies the association between childhood UPF consumption and early adulthood BMI. Results: Each 10\% increase in the proportion of total energy intake coming from UPF at 7 was associated with 0.21 (95\% CI 0.05–0.37) kg/m2 higher BMI at 24, after adjusting for BMI at 7, age, sex, ethnicity, physical activity, socioeconomic position, and total energy intake. There is evidence for PGS-BMI interaction (0.19; 95\% CI 0.02–0.36), and the UPF-BMI association was only retained in children with the highest genetic predisposition to higher BMI (0.74, 95\% CI 0.07–1.42) in the subgroup analysis. Conclusions: UPF consumption in childhood is only associated with early adulthood obesity among children more genetically predisposed to higher BMI.",

keywords = "adiposity, genetic susceptibility, BMI, ultra-processed food, obesity",

author = "Ziyi Zhou and Qiaosen Chen and Zhi Li and Shi Zhang and Solange Parra-Soto and Anqi Wang and Mengxi Du and Xinwen Xu and Zhe Fang and Yujia Lu and Zhao, \{Yu Chen\} and Strawbridge, \{Rona J.\} and Patrick Ip and Naveed Satter and Timpson, \{Nicholas J.\} and Mingyang Song and Carlos Celis-Morales and Gunter, \{Marc J.\} and Pell, \{Jill P.\} and Edward Giovannucci and Ho, \{Frederick K.\}",

note = "{\textcopyright} The Author(s) 2026. ",

year = "2026",

month = apr,

day = "16",

doi = "10.1186/s12916-026-04764-5",

language = "English",

volume = "24",

journal = "BMC Medicine",

issn = "1741-7015",

publisher = "BioMed Central Ltd",

number = "1",

}

Zhou, Z, Chen, Q, Li, Z, Zhang, S, Parra-Soto, S, Wang, A, Du, M, Xu, X, Fang, Z, Lu, Y, Zhao, YC, Strawbridge, RJ, Ip, P, Satter, N, Timpson, NJ, Song, M, Celis-Morales, C, Gunter, MJ, Pell, JP, Giovannucci, E & Ho, FK 2026, 'Genetic predisposition to high BMI, ultra-processed food consumptions in childhood, and adiposity in young adulthood: a 17-year prospective cohort study of 3061 individuals', BMC Medicine, vol. 24, no. 1, 251. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-026-04764-5

TY - JOUR

T1 - Genetic predisposition to high BMI, ultra-processed food consumptions in childhood, and adiposity in young adulthood

T2 - a 17-year prospective cohort study of 3061 individuals

AU - Zhou, Ziyi

AU - Chen, Qiaosen

AU - Li, Zhi

AU - Zhang, Shi

AU - Parra-Soto, Solange

AU - Wang, Anqi

AU - Du, Mengxi

AU - Xu, Xinwen

AU - Fang, Zhe

AU - Lu, Yujia

AU - Zhao, Yu Chen

AU - Strawbridge, Rona J.

AU - Ip, Patrick

AU - Satter, Naveed

AU - Timpson, Nicholas J.

AU - Song, Mingyang

AU - Celis-Morales, Carlos

AU - Gunter, Marc J.

AU - Pell, Jill P.

AU - Giovannucci, Edward

AU - Ho, Frederick K.

PY - 2026/4/16

Y1 - 2026/4/16

N2 - Background: Observational evidence suggests ultra-processed food (UPF) may contribute to obesity, but some people who consume a larger amount of UPF remain at normal weight. This study examined whether childhood UPF consumption was associated with obesity in early adulthood and whether the association was modified by genetic susceptibility to body mass index (BMI). Methods: This prospective cohort study included data from 3061 participants of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) in England with follow-up from 7 to 24 years. UPF consumption was calculated from food diaries based on the NOVA classification. LDpred2 was used to construct a polygenic score (PGS) for body mass index (BMI). Linear regression models were used to estimate the association between UPF intake at 7 years and BMI at 24 years. The PGS-UPF interaction was examined to see whether genetic susceptibility modifies the association between childhood UPF consumption and early adulthood BMI. Results: Each 10% increase in the proportion of total energy intake coming from UPF at 7 was associated with 0.21 (95% CI 0.05–0.37) kg/m2 higher BMI at 24, after adjusting for BMI at 7, age, sex, ethnicity, physical activity, socioeconomic position, and total energy intake. There is evidence for PGS-BMI interaction (0.19; 95% CI 0.02–0.36), and the UPF-BMI association was only retained in children with the highest genetic predisposition to higher BMI (0.74, 95% CI 0.07–1.42) in the subgroup analysis. Conclusions: UPF consumption in childhood is only associated with early adulthood obesity among children more genetically predisposed to higher BMI.

AB - Background: Observational evidence suggests ultra-processed food (UPF) may contribute to obesity, but some people who consume a larger amount of UPF remain at normal weight. This study examined whether childhood UPF consumption was associated with obesity in early adulthood and whether the association was modified by genetic susceptibility to body mass index (BMI). Methods: This prospective cohort study included data from 3061 participants of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) in England with follow-up from 7 to 24 years. UPF consumption was calculated from food diaries based on the NOVA classification. LDpred2 was used to construct a polygenic score (PGS) for body mass index (BMI). Linear regression models were used to estimate the association between UPF intake at 7 years and BMI at 24 years. The PGS-UPF interaction was examined to see whether genetic susceptibility modifies the association between childhood UPF consumption and early adulthood BMI. Results: Each 10% increase in the proportion of total energy intake coming from UPF at 7 was associated with 0.21 (95% CI 0.05–0.37) kg/m2 higher BMI at 24, after adjusting for BMI at 7, age, sex, ethnicity, physical activity, socioeconomic position, and total energy intake. There is evidence for PGS-BMI interaction (0.19; 95% CI 0.02–0.36), and the UPF-BMI association was only retained in children with the highest genetic predisposition to higher BMI (0.74, 95% CI 0.07–1.42) in the subgroup analysis. Conclusions: UPF consumption in childhood is only associated with early adulthood obesity among children more genetically predisposed to higher BMI.

KW - adiposity

KW - genetic susceptibility

KW - BMI

KW - ultra-processed food

KW - obesity

U2 - 10.1186/s12916-026-04764-5

DO - 10.1186/s12916-026-04764-5

M3 - Article (Academic Journal)

C2 - 41992213

SN - 1741-7015

VL - 24

JO - BMC Medicine

JF - BMC Medicine

IS - 1

M1 - 251

ER -

Genetic predisposition to high BMI, ultra-processed food consumptions in childhood, and adiposity in young adulthood: a 17-year prospective cohort study of 3061 individuals

Abstract

Bibliographical note

UN SDGs

Keywords

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