Glacier preservation doubled by limiting warming to 1.5°C versus 2.7°C

Harry Zekollari; Lilian Schuster; Fabien Maussion; Regine Hock; Ben Marzeion; David R. Rounce; Loris Compagno; Koji Fujita; Matthias Huss; Megan James; Philip D. A. Kraaijenbrink; William H. Lipscomb; Samar Minallah; Moritz Oberrauch; Lander Van Tricht; Nicolas Champollion; Tamsin Edwards; Daniel Farinotti; Walter Immerzeel; Gunter Leguy; Akiko Sakai

doi:10.1126/science.adu4675

Glacier preservation doubled by limiting warming to 1.5°C versus 2.7°C

Harry Zekollari^*, Lilian Schuster^*, Fabien Maussion, Regine Hock, Ben Marzeion, David R. Rounce, Loris Compagno, Koji Fujita, Matthias Huss, Megan James, Philip D. A. Kraaijenbrink, William H. Lipscomb, Samar Minallah, Moritz Oberrauch, Lander Van Tricht, Nicolas Champollion, Tamsin Edwards, Daniel Farinotti, Walter Immerzeel, Gunter LeguyAkiko Sakai

^*Corresponding author for this work

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Abstract

Glaciers adapt slowly to changing climatic conditions, with long-term implications for sea-level rise and water supply. Using eight glacier models, we simulated global glacier evolution over multicentennial timescales, allowing glaciers to equilibrate with climate under various constant global temperature scenarios. We estimate that glaciers globally will lose 39 (range, 15 to 55)% of their mass relative to 2020, corresponding to a global mean sea-level rise of 113 (range, 43 to 204) mm even if temperatures stabilized at present-day conditions. Under the +1.5°C Paris Agreement goal, more than twice as much global glacier mass remains at equilibration (53% versus 24%) compared with the warming level resulting from current policies (+2.7°C by 2100 above preindustrial). Our findings stress the need for stringent mitigation policies to ensure the long-term preservation of glaciers.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	979-983
Number of pages	5
Journal	Science
Volume	388
Issue number	6750
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adu4675
Publication status	Published - 29 May 2025

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Zekollari, H., Schuster, L., Maussion, F., Hock, R., Marzeion, B., Rounce, D. R., Compagno, L., Fujita, K., Huss, M., James, M., Kraaijenbrink, P. D. A., Lipscomb, W. H., Minallah, S., Oberrauch, M., Tricht, L. V., Champollion, N., Edwards, T., Farinotti, D., Immerzeel, W., ... Sakai, A. (2025). Glacier preservation doubled by limiting warming to 1.5°C versus 2.7°C. Science, 388(6750), 979-983. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adu4675

@article{324173916d2f4abc923808e456119569,

title = "Glacier preservation doubled by limiting warming to 1.5°C versus 2.7°C",

abstract = "Glaciers adapt slowly to changing climatic conditions, with long-term implications for sea-level rise and water supply. Using eight glacier models, we simulated global glacier evolution over multicentennial timescales, allowing glaciers to equilibrate with climate under various constant global temperature scenarios. We estimate that glaciers globally will lose 39 (range, 15 to 55)% of their mass relative to 2020, corresponding to a global mean sea-level rise of 113 (range, 43 to 204) mm even if temperatures stabilized at present-day conditions. Under the +1.5°C Paris Agreement goal, more than twice as much global glacier mass remains at equilibration (53% versus 24%) compared with the warming level resulting from current policies (+2.7°C by 2100 above preindustrial). Our findings stress the need for stringent mitigation policies to ensure the long-term preservation of glaciers.",

author = "Harry Zekollari and Lilian Schuster and Fabien Maussion and Regine Hock and Ben Marzeion and Rounce, {David R.} and Loris Compagno and Koji Fujita and Matthias Huss and Megan James and Kraaijenbrink, {Philip D. A.} and Lipscomb, {William H.} and Samar Minallah and Moritz Oberrauch and Tricht, {Lander Van} and Nicolas Champollion and Tamsin Edwards and Daniel Farinotti and Walter Immerzeel and Gunter Leguy and Akiko Sakai",

note = "Publisher Copyright: Copyright {\textcopyright} 2025 the authors, some rights reserved.",

year = "2025",

month = may,

day = "29",

doi = "10.1126/science.adu4675",

language = "English",

volume = "388",

pages = "979--983",

journal = "Science",

issn = "0036-8075",

publisher = "American Association for the Advancement of Science",

number = "6750",

}

Zekollari, H, Schuster, L, Maussion, F, Hock, R, Marzeion, B, Rounce, DR, Compagno, L, Fujita, K, Huss, M, James, M, Kraaijenbrink, PDA, Lipscomb, WH, Minallah, S, Oberrauch, M, Tricht, LV, Champollion, N, Edwards, T, Farinotti, D, Immerzeel, W, Leguy, G & Sakai, A 2025, 'Glacier preservation doubled by limiting warming to 1.5°C versus 2.7°C', Science, vol. 388, no. 6750, pp. 979-983. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adu4675

TY - JOUR

T1 - Glacier preservation doubled by limiting warming to 1.5°C versus 2.7°C

AU - Zekollari, Harry

AU - Schuster, Lilian

AU - Maussion, Fabien

AU - Hock, Regine

AU - Marzeion, Ben

AU - Rounce, David R.

AU - Compagno, Loris

AU - Fujita, Koji

AU - Huss, Matthias

AU - James, Megan

AU - Kraaijenbrink, Philip D. A.

AU - Lipscomb, William H.

AU - Minallah, Samar

AU - Oberrauch, Moritz

AU - Tricht, Lander Van

AU - Champollion, Nicolas

AU - Edwards, Tamsin

AU - Farinotti, Daniel

AU - Immerzeel, Walter

AU - Leguy, Gunter

AU - Sakai, Akiko

PY - 2025/5/29

Y1 - 2025/5/29

N2 - Glaciers adapt slowly to changing climatic conditions, with long-term implications for sea-level rise and water supply. Using eight glacier models, we simulated global glacier evolution over multicentennial timescales, allowing glaciers to equilibrate with climate under various constant global temperature scenarios. We estimate that glaciers globally will lose 39 (range, 15 to 55)% of their mass relative to 2020, corresponding to a global mean sea-level rise of 113 (range, 43 to 204) mm even if temperatures stabilized at present-day conditions. Under the +1.5°C Paris Agreement goal, more than twice as much global glacier mass remains at equilibration (53% versus 24%) compared with the warming level resulting from current policies (+2.7°C by 2100 above preindustrial). Our findings stress the need for stringent mitigation policies to ensure the long-term preservation of glaciers.

AB - Glaciers adapt slowly to changing climatic conditions, with long-term implications for sea-level rise and water supply. Using eight glacier models, we simulated global glacier evolution over multicentennial timescales, allowing glaciers to equilibrate with climate under various constant global temperature scenarios. We estimate that glaciers globally will lose 39 (range, 15 to 55)% of their mass relative to 2020, corresponding to a global mean sea-level rise of 113 (range, 43 to 204) mm even if temperatures stabilized at present-day conditions. Under the +1.5°C Paris Agreement goal, more than twice as much global glacier mass remains at equilibration (53% versus 24%) compared with the warming level resulting from current policies (+2.7°C by 2100 above preindustrial). Our findings stress the need for stringent mitigation policies to ensure the long-term preservation of glaciers.

U2 - 10.1126/science.adu4675

DO - 10.1126/science.adu4675

M3 - Article (Academic Journal)

C2 - 40440393

SN - 0036-8075

VL - 388

SP - 979

EP - 983

JO - Science

JF - Science

IS - 6750

ER -

Glacier preservation doubled by limiting warming to 1.5°C versus 2.7°C

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