Global bank lending during political conflicts

We examine global bank lending during geopolitical conflicts. Exploiting Russia’s 2014 countersanctions on the European agricultural industry, we analyze global banks’ syndicated lending to affected firms. We document a significant increase in credit supply to the sanctioned industry, accompanied by a significant increase in the shares of loans with lower spreads and longer maturities. The expansion of credit is not driven by incumbent banks alone. Instead, banks with little prior exposure to agriculture—particularly foreign banks headquartered in alternative export destinations where European firms are likely to redirect trade—account for a considerable proportion of the increased lending. This finding suggests banks actively rebalance their loan portfolio and strategic positioning in response to shifting trade flows. Our findings highlight the role of banks as intermediaries that adjust credit allocation across sectors during geopolitical disruptions, thereby cushioning targeted industries and facilitating their transition toward new markets.