Global recording rates for large eruptions

Jonathan Rougier; Stephen Sparks; Katharine Cashman

doi:10.1186/s13617-016-0051-4

Global recording rates for large eruptions

Jonathan Rougier^*, Stephen Sparks, Katharine Cashman

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article (Academic Journal) › peer-review

26 Citations (Scopus)

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Abstract

A non-parametric statistical approach is used to assess the global recording rate for large (M4+) stratovolcano eruptions in a modern database, LaMEVE (v3.1). This approach imposes minimal structure on the shape of the recording rate through time. We find that recording rates have declined rapidly, going backwards in time. Prior to the year 1600 they are below 50%, and prior to 1100 they are below 20%. Even in the recent past, e.g. the 1800s, they are likely to be less than 100%. The assessment for very large (M5+) eruptions is more uncertain, due to the scarcity of events.

Original language	English
Article number	11
Number of pages	10
Journal	Journal of Applied Volcanology
Volume	5
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1186/s13617-016-0051-4
Publication status	Published - 1 Dec 2016

Keywords

Under-recording
non-parametric
confidence set

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10.1186/s13617-016-0051-4

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AB - A non-parametric statistical approach is used to assess the global recording rate for large (M4+) stratovolcano eruptions in a modern database, LaMEVE (v3.1). This approach imposes minimal structure on the shape of the recording rate through time. We find that recording rates have declined rapidly, going backwards in time. Prior to the year 1600 they are below 50%, and prior to 1100 they are below 20%. Even in the recent past, e.g. the 1800s, they are likely to be less than 100%. The assessment for very large (M5+) eruptions is more uncertain, due to the scarcity of events.

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KW - confidence set

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VL - 5

JO - Journal of Applied Volcanology

JF - Journal of Applied Volcanology

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Global recording rates for large eruptions

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Keywords

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Global Volcano Model

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Global recording rates for large eruptions

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