Global recording rates for large eruptions

Jonathan Rougier*, Stephen Sparks, Katharine Cashman

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle (Academic Journal)peer-review

17 Citations (Scopus)
247 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

A non-parametric statistical approach is used to assess the global recording rate for large (M4+) stratovolcano eruptions in a modern database, LaMEVE (v3.1). This approach imposes minimal structure on the shape of the recording rate through time. We find that recording rates have declined rapidly, going backwards in time. Prior to the year 1600 they are below 50%, and prior to 1100 they are below 20%. Even in the recent past, e.g. the 1800s, they are likely to be less than 100%. The assessment for very large (M5+) eruptions is more uncertain, due to the scarcity of events.
Original languageEnglish
Article number11
Number of pages10
JournalJournal of Applied Volcanology
Volume5
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Dec 2016

Keywords

  • Under-recording
  • non-parametric
  • confidence set

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