TY - JOUR
T1 - GOLD Classifications, COPD Hospitalization, and All-Cause Mortality in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease
T2 - The HUNT Study
AU - Bhatta, Laxmi
AU - Leivseth, Linda
AU - Mai, Xiao-Mei
AU - Henriksen, Anne Hildur
AU - Carslake, David
AU - Chen, Yue
AU - Langhammer, Arnulf
AU - Brumpton, Ben Michael
N1 - © 2020 Bhatta et al.
PY - 2020/1/31
Y1 - 2020/1/31
N2 - Purpose: The Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) has published three classifications of COPD from 2007 to 2017. No studies have investigated the ability of these classifications to predict COPD-related hospitalizations. We aimed to compare the discrimination ability of the GOLD 2007, 2011, and 2017 classifications to predict COPD hospitalization and all-cause mortality.Patients and Methods: We followed 1300 participants with COPD aged ≥40 years who participated in the HUNT Study (1995-1997) through to December 31, 2015. Survival analysis and time-dependent area under receiver operating characteristics curves (AUC) were used to compare the discrimination abilities of the GOLD classifications.Results: Of the 1300 participants, 522 were hospitalized due to COPD and 896 died over 20.4 years of follow-up. In adjusted models, worsening GOLD 2007, GOLD 2011, or GOLD 2017 categories were associated with higher hazards for COPD hospitalization and all-cause mortality, except for the GOLD 2017 classification and all-cause mortality (ptrend=0.114). In crude models, the AUCs (95% CI) for the GOLD 2007, GOLD 2011, and GOLD 2017 for COPD hospitalization were 63.1 (58.7-66.9), 60.9 (56.1-64.4), and 56.1 (54.0-58.1), respectively, at 20-years' follow-up. Corresponding estimates for all-cause mortality were 57.0 (54.8-59.1), 54.1 (52.1-56.0), and 52.6 (51.0-54.3). The differences in AUCs between the GOLD classifications to predict COPD hospitalization and all-cause mortality were constant over the follow-up time.Conclusion: The GOLD 2007 classification was better than the GOLD 2011 and 2017 classifications at predicting COPD hospitalization and all-cause mortality.
AB - Purpose: The Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) has published three classifications of COPD from 2007 to 2017. No studies have investigated the ability of these classifications to predict COPD-related hospitalizations. We aimed to compare the discrimination ability of the GOLD 2007, 2011, and 2017 classifications to predict COPD hospitalization and all-cause mortality.Patients and Methods: We followed 1300 participants with COPD aged ≥40 years who participated in the HUNT Study (1995-1997) through to December 31, 2015. Survival analysis and time-dependent area under receiver operating characteristics curves (AUC) were used to compare the discrimination abilities of the GOLD classifications.Results: Of the 1300 participants, 522 were hospitalized due to COPD and 896 died over 20.4 years of follow-up. In adjusted models, worsening GOLD 2007, GOLD 2011, or GOLD 2017 categories were associated with higher hazards for COPD hospitalization and all-cause mortality, except for the GOLD 2017 classification and all-cause mortality (ptrend=0.114). In crude models, the AUCs (95% CI) for the GOLD 2007, GOLD 2011, and GOLD 2017 for COPD hospitalization were 63.1 (58.7-66.9), 60.9 (56.1-64.4), and 56.1 (54.0-58.1), respectively, at 20-years' follow-up. Corresponding estimates for all-cause mortality were 57.0 (54.8-59.1), 54.1 (52.1-56.0), and 52.6 (51.0-54.3). The differences in AUCs between the GOLD classifications to predict COPD hospitalization and all-cause mortality were constant over the follow-up time.Conclusion: The GOLD 2007 classification was better than the GOLD 2011 and 2017 classifications at predicting COPD hospitalization and all-cause mortality.
U2 - 10.2147/COPD.S228958
DO - 10.2147/COPD.S228958
M3 - Article (Academic Journal)
C2 - 32099347
SN - 1176-9106
VL - 15
SP - 225
EP - 233
JO - International journal of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
JF - International journal of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
ER -