Grasping the unavoidable subjectivity in calibration of flood inundation models: A vulnerability weighted approach

Florian Pappenberger*, Keith Beven, Kevin Frodsham, Renata Romanowicz, Patrick Matgen

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle (Academic Journal)peer-review

78 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Quantitative modeling of risk and hazard from flooding involves decisions regarding the choice of model and goal of the modeling exercise, expressed by some measure of performance. This paper shows how the subjectivity in the choices of performance measures and observation sets used for model calibration inevitably results in variability in the estimation of flood hazard. We compare the predictions of a 2D flood inundation model obtained using different global and local evaluation criteria. It is shown that traditional area averaging performance measures are inadequate in the face of model imperfection, especially when such models are calibrated for flood hazard studies. In this study we include flood risk weighting into the performance measure of the model. This allows us to calibrate the model to places that are important, e.g. location of houses. The quantification of the importance of places requires the necessity of engaging stakeholders into the model calibration process.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)275-287
Number of pages13
JournalJournal of Hydrology
Volume333
Issue number2-4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 15 Feb 2007

Keywords

  • Flood hazard
  • Flood inundation model
  • Flood risk
  • GLUE
  • LISFLOOD-FP
  • Raster map comparison
  • Utility function

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