Guidance on the use of complex systems models for economic evaluations of public health interventions

Penny Breeze; Hazal Squires; Kate Ennis; Petra Meier; Kate Hayes; Nik Lomax; Alan Shiell; Frank Kee; Frank  de Vocht; Martin O'Flaherty; Nigel Gilbert; Robin Purshouse; Stewart Robinson; Peter Dodd; Mark Strong; Suzy Paisley; Richard Smith; Andrew Briggs; Lion Shahab; Jo-An Occhipinti; Kenny Lawson; Thomas Bayley; Robert Smith; Jennifer Boyd; Visakan Kadirkamanathan; Richard Cookson; Monica Hernandez-Alava; Christopher Jackson; Amanda Karapici; Franco Sassi; Peter Scarborough; Uwe Siebert; Eric Silverman; Luke Vale; Cathal Walsh; Alan Brennan

doi:10.1002/hec.4681

Guidance on the use of complex systems models for economic evaluations of public health interventions

Penny Breeze^*, Hazal Squires, Kate Ennis, Petra Meier, Kate Hayes, Nik Lomax, Alan Shiell, Frank Kee, Frank de Vocht , Martin O'Flaherty, Nigel Gilbert, Robin Purshouse, Stewart Robinson, Peter Dodd, Mark Strong, Suzy Paisley, Richard Smith, Andrew Briggs, Lion Shahab, Jo-An OcchipintiKenny Lawson, Thomas Bayley, Robert Smith, Jennifer Boyd, Visakan Kadirkamanathan, Richard Cookson, Monica Hernandez-Alava, Christopher Jackson, Amanda Karapici, Franco Sassi, Peter Scarborough, Uwe Siebert, Eric Silverman, Luke Vale, Cathal Walsh, Alan Brennan

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article (Academic Journal) › peer-review

41 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

To help health economic modelers respond to demands for greater use of complex systems models in public health. To propose identifiable features of such models and support researchers to plan public health modeling projects using these models. A working group of experts in complex systems modeling and economic evaluation was brought together to develop and jointly write guidance for the use of complex systems models for health economic analysis. The content of workshops was informed by a scoping review. A public health complex systems model for economic evaluation is defined as a quantitative, dynamic, non-linear model that incorporates feedback and interactions among model elements, in order to capture emergent outcomes and estimate health, economic and potentially other consequences to inform public policies. The guidance covers: when complex systems modeling is needed; principles for designing a complex systems model; and how to choose an appropriate modeling technique. This paper provides a definition to identify and characterize complex systems models for economic evaluations and proposes guidance on key aspects of the process for health economics analysis. This document will support the development of complex systems models, with impact on public health systems policy and decision making.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1603-1625
Number of pages	23
Journal	Health Economics
Volume	32
Issue number	7
Early online date	20 Apr 2023
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1002/hec.4681
Publication status	Published - 2 Jun 2023

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
Dr Lucy Gavens, Luke Hounsome and Dr David Tordup provided an independent review of the guidance. We acknowledge contributions from Yanaina Chavez Ugalde for contributions to the workshops. This project is funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) School for Public Health Research (SPHR) (Grant Reference Number PD‐SPH‐2015). The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care. Robert Smith, Thomas Bayley, Jennifer Boyd, and Kate Hayes received funding from the University of Sheffield Wellcome Trust Doctoral Training Center (203956/Z/16/Z). Amanda Karapici is supported by the NIHR School for Public Health Research Doctoral Studentship. Chris Jackson is supported by the Medical Research Council, program number MRC_MC_UU_00002/11. Eric Silverman is funded by the Medical Research Councl (MC_UU_00022/1), and UK Prevention Research Partnership (MR/S037594/1). Frank DeVocht is partly funded by the National Institute for Health Research Applied Research Collaboration West (NIHR ARC West) at University Hospitals Bristol NHS Foundation Trust and the University of Bristol. Petra Meier is funded by the UKRI Medical Research Council and UKRI Medical Research Council UK Prevention Research Partnership. Robin Purshouse is funded by the National Institutes of Health, R01 AA024443. Lion Shahab is funded by Cancer Research UK (C1417/A22962). Peter Scarborough is funded from a fellowship from the British Heart Foundation (FS/15/34/31656). Visakan Kadirkamanathan is supported by the UK‐PRP SIPHER Project.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

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Breeze, P., Squires, H., Ennis, K., Meier, P., Hayes, K., Lomax, N., Shiell, A., Kee, F., de Vocht , F., O'Flaherty, M., Gilbert, N., Purshouse, R., Robinson, S., Dodd, P., Strong, M., Paisley, S., Smith, R., Briggs, A., Shahab, L., ... Brennan, A. (2023). Guidance on the use of complex systems models for economic evaluations of public health interventions. Health Economics, 32(7), 1603-1625. https://doi.org/10.1002/hec.4681

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title = "Guidance on the use of complex systems models for economic evaluations of public health interventions",

abstract = "To help health economic modelers respond to demands for greater use of complex systems models in public health. To propose identifiable features of such models and support researchers to plan public health modeling projects using these models. A working group of experts in complex systems modeling and economic evaluation was brought together to develop and jointly write guidance for the use of complex systems models for health economic analysis. The content of workshops was informed by a scoping review. A public health complex systems model for economic evaluation is defined as a quantitative, dynamic, non-linear model that incorporates feedback and interactions among model elements, in order to capture emergent outcomes and estimate health, economic and potentially other consequences to inform public policies. The guidance covers: when complex systems modeling is needed; principles for designing a complex systems model; and how to choose an appropriate modeling technique. This paper provides a definition to identify and characterize complex systems models for economic evaluations and proposes guidance on key aspects of the process for health economics analysis. This document will support the development of complex systems models, with impact on public health systems policy and decision making.",

author = "Penny Breeze and Hazal Squires and Kate Ennis and Petra Meier and Kate Hayes and Nik Lomax and Alan Shiell and Frank Kee and \{de Vocht\}, Frank and Martin O'Flaherty and Nigel Gilbert and Robin Purshouse and Stewart Robinson and Peter Dodd and Mark Strong and Suzy Paisley and Richard Smith and Andrew Briggs and Lion Shahab and Jo-An Occhipinti and Kenny Lawson and Thomas Bayley and Robert Smith and Jennifer Boyd and Visakan Kadirkamanathan and Richard Cookson and Monica Hernandez-Alava and Christopher Jackson and Amanda Karapici and Franco Sassi and Peter Scarborough and Uwe Siebert and Eric Silverman and Luke Vale and Cathal Walsh and Alan Brennan",

note = "Funding Information: Dr Lucy Gavens, Luke Hounsome and Dr David Tordup provided an independent review of the guidance. We acknowledge contributions from Yanaina Chavez Ugalde for contributions to the workshops. This project is funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) School for Public Health Research (SPHR) (Grant Reference Number PD‐SPH‐2015). The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care. Robert Smith, Thomas Bayley, Jennifer Boyd, and Kate Hayes received funding from the University of Sheffield Wellcome Trust Doctoral Training Center (203956/Z/16/Z). Amanda Karapici is supported by the NIHR School for Public Health Research Doctoral Studentship. Chris Jackson is supported by the Medical Research Council, program number MRC\_MC\_UU\_00002/11. Eric Silverman is funded by the Medical Research Councl (MC\_UU\_00022/1), and UK Prevention Research Partnership (MR/S037594/1). Frank DeVocht is partly funded by the National Institute for Health Research Applied Research Collaboration West (NIHR ARC West) at University Hospitals Bristol NHS Foundation Trust and the University of Bristol. Petra Meier is funded by the UKRI Medical Research Council and UKRI Medical Research Council UK Prevention Research Partnership. Robin Purshouse is funded by the National Institutes of Health, R01 AA024443. Lion Shahab is funded by Cancer Research UK (C1417/A22962). Peter Scarborough is funded from a fellowship from the British Heart Foundation (FS/15/34/31656). Visakan Kadirkamanathan is supported by the UK‐PRP SIPHER Project. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2023 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley \& Sons Ltd.",

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Breeze, P, Squires, H, Ennis, K, Meier, P, Hayes, K, Lomax, N, Shiell, A, Kee, F, de Vocht , F, O'Flaherty, M, Gilbert, N, Purshouse, R, Robinson, S, Dodd, P, Strong, M, Paisley, S, Smith, R, Briggs, A, Shahab, L, Occhipinti, J-A, Lawson, K, Bayley, T, Smith, R, Boyd, J, Kadirkamanathan, V, Cookson, R, Hernandez-Alava, M, Jackson, C, Karapici, A, Sassi, F, Scarborough, P, Siebert, U, Silverman, E, Vale, L, Walsh, C & Brennan, A 2023, 'Guidance on the use of complex systems models for economic evaluations of public health interventions', Health Economics, vol. 32, no. 7, pp. 1603-1625. https://doi.org/10.1002/hec.4681

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AU - Breeze, Penny

AU - Squires, Hazal

AU - Ennis, Kate

AU - Meier, Petra

AU - Hayes, Kate

AU - Lomax, Nik

AU - Shiell, Alan

AU - Kee, Frank

AU - de Vocht , Frank

AU - O'Flaherty, Martin

AU - Gilbert, Nigel

AU - Purshouse, Robin

AU - Robinson, Stewart

AU - Dodd, Peter

AU - Strong, Mark

AU - Paisley, Suzy

AU - Smith, Richard

AU - Briggs, Andrew

AU - Shahab, Lion

AU - Occhipinti, Jo-An

AU - Lawson, Kenny

AU - Bayley, Thomas

AU - Smith, Robert

AU - Boyd, Jennifer

AU - Kadirkamanathan, Visakan

AU - Cookson, Richard

AU - Hernandez-Alava, Monica

AU - Jackson, Christopher

AU - Karapici, Amanda

AU - Sassi, Franco

AU - Scarborough, Peter

AU - Siebert, Uwe

AU - Silverman, Eric

AU - Vale, Luke

AU - Walsh, Cathal

AU - Brennan, Alan

N1 - Funding Information: Dr Lucy Gavens, Luke Hounsome and Dr David Tordup provided an independent review of the guidance. We acknowledge contributions from Yanaina Chavez Ugalde for contributions to the workshops. This project is funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) School for Public Health Research (SPHR) (Grant Reference Number PD‐SPH‐2015). The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care. Robert Smith, Thomas Bayley, Jennifer Boyd, and Kate Hayes received funding from the University of Sheffield Wellcome Trust Doctoral Training Center (203956/Z/16/Z). Amanda Karapici is supported by the NIHR School for Public Health Research Doctoral Studentship. Chris Jackson is supported by the Medical Research Council, program number MRC_MC_UU_00002/11. Eric Silverman is funded by the Medical Research Councl (MC_UU_00022/1), and UK Prevention Research Partnership (MR/S037594/1). Frank DeVocht is partly funded by the National Institute for Health Research Applied Research Collaboration West (NIHR ARC West) at University Hospitals Bristol NHS Foundation Trust and the University of Bristol. Petra Meier is funded by the UKRI Medical Research Council and UKRI Medical Research Council UK Prevention Research Partnership. Robin Purshouse is funded by the National Institutes of Health, R01 AA024443. Lion Shahab is funded by Cancer Research UK (C1417/A22962). Peter Scarborough is funded from a fellowship from the British Heart Foundation (FS/15/34/31656). Visakan Kadirkamanathan is supported by the UK‐PRP SIPHER Project. Publisher Copyright: © 2023 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

PY - 2023/6/2

Y1 - 2023/6/2

N2 - To help health economic modelers respond to demands for greater use of complex systems models in public health. To propose identifiable features of such models and support researchers to plan public health modeling projects using these models. A working group of experts in complex systems modeling and economic evaluation was brought together to develop and jointly write guidance for the use of complex systems models for health economic analysis. The content of workshops was informed by a scoping review. A public health complex systems model for economic evaluation is defined as a quantitative, dynamic, non-linear model that incorporates feedback and interactions among model elements, in order to capture emergent outcomes and estimate health, economic and potentially other consequences to inform public policies. The guidance covers: when complex systems modeling is needed; principles for designing a complex systems model; and how to choose an appropriate modeling technique. This paper provides a definition to identify and characterize complex systems models for economic evaluations and proposes guidance on key aspects of the process for health economics analysis. This document will support the development of complex systems models, with impact on public health systems policy and decision making.

AB - To help health economic modelers respond to demands for greater use of complex systems models in public health. To propose identifiable features of such models and support researchers to plan public health modeling projects using these models. A working group of experts in complex systems modeling and economic evaluation was brought together to develop and jointly write guidance for the use of complex systems models for health economic analysis. The content of workshops was informed by a scoping review. A public health complex systems model for economic evaluation is defined as a quantitative, dynamic, non-linear model that incorporates feedback and interactions among model elements, in order to capture emergent outcomes and estimate health, economic and potentially other consequences to inform public policies. The guidance covers: when complex systems modeling is needed; principles for designing a complex systems model; and how to choose an appropriate modeling technique. This paper provides a definition to identify and characterize complex systems models for economic evaluations and proposes guidance on key aspects of the process for health economics analysis. This document will support the development of complex systems models, with impact on public health systems policy and decision making.

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DO - 10.1002/hec.4681

M3 - Article (Academic Journal)

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SN - 1057-9230

VL - 32

SP - 1603

EP - 1625

JO - Health Economics

JF - Health Economics

IS - 7

ER -

Guidance on the use of complex systems models for economic evaluations of public health interventions

Abstract

Bibliographical note

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