HESS Opinions "on forecast (in)consistency in a hydro-meteorological chain: Curse or blessing?"

F. Pappenberger*, H. L. Cloke, A. Persson, D. Demeritt

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle (Academic Journal)peer-review

13 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Flood forecasting increasingly relies on numerical weather prediction forecasts to achieve longer lead times. One of the key difficulties that is emerging in constructing a decision framework for these flood forecasts is what to dowhen consecutive forecasts are so different that they lead to different conclusions regarding the issuing of warnings or triggering other action. In this opinion paper we explore some of the issues surrounding such forecast inconsistency (also known as "Jumpiness", "Turning points", "Continuity" or number of "Swings"). In thsi opinion paper we define forecast inconsistency; discuss the reasons why forecasts might be inconsistent; how we should analyse inconsistency; and what we should do about it; how we should communicate it and whether it is a totally undesirable property. The property of consistency is increasingly emerging as a hot topic in many forecasting environments.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)2391-2400
Number of pages10
JournalHydrology and Earth System Sciences
Volume15
Issue number7
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 3 Aug 2011

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