Projects per year
Abstract
The Paris Agreement 1 aims to 'pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels.' However, it has been suggested that temperature targets alone are insufficient to limit the risks associated with anthropogenic emissions 2,3. Here, using an ensemble of model simulations, we show that atmospheric CO2 increase-an even more predictable consequence of emissions than global temperature increase-has a significant direct impact on Northern Hemisphere summer temperature, heat stress, and tropical precipitation extremes. Hence in an iterative climate mitigation regime aiming solely for a specific temperature goal, an unexpectedly low climate response may have corresponding 'dangerous' changes in extreme events. The direct impact of higher CO2 concentrations on climate extremes therefore substantially reduces the upper bound of the carbon budget, and highlights the need to explicitly limit atmospheric CO2 concentration when formulating allowable emissions. Thus, complementing global mean temperature goals with explicit limits on atmospheric CO2 concentrations in future climate policy would limit the adverse effects of high-impact weather extremes.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 604-608 |
Number of pages | 5 |
Journal | Nature Climate Change |
Volume | 8 |
Issue number | 7 |
Early online date | 11 Jun 2018 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - Jul 2018 |
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Dive into the research topics of 'Higher CO2 concentrations increase extreme event risk in a 1.5 °c world'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.Projects
- 1 Finished
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Nerc Fellowship Daniel Mitchell
Payne, A. J. (Principal Investigator) & Mitchell, D. M. (Principal Investigator)
1/12/16 → 30/11/22
Project: Research
Profiles
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Professor Dann M Mitchell
- School of Geographical Sciences - Professor of Climate Science
- Cabot Institute for the Environment
Person: Academic , Member