How is climate science used to inform national-level adaptation planning in southern Africa?

Ailish Craig*, Rachel James, Emma Archer, Joe Daron, Chris Jack, Richard Jones, Alan T Kennedy-Asser, Jessica Lee, Alice McClure, Christopher Shaw, Anna Steynor, Andrea Taylor, Katherine Vincent

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle (Academic Journal)peer-review

Abstract

Climate model projections are increasingly being included within adaptation planning across sectors but there is limited understanding of how they are being used, and to what extent they improve adaptation planning. This article investigates how climate projections inform adaptation planning processes in the National Communications (NCs) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 16 southern African countries through a document analysis together with 18 key informant interviews. The study found that all the NCs include future climate model projections for the mid and/or late twenty-first century and focus on average changes in temperature and precipitation; meanwhile, the models, scenarios and time periods used vary between countries. The climate analysis is often detached from the adaptation planning section of the NC. The impacts and adaptation sections focus on key risks, such as flooding and drought and have limited recognition of uncertainties, suggesting plans are made without considering the full range of plausible futures. The role of climate science in the adaptation planning process varies, with some evidence of highly collaborative processes, resulting in evidence-based adaptation options across sectors and scales. In many cases, boundary agents play a key role in interpreting and communicating climate projections. We suggest that providing additional climate projections is unlikely to improve national adaptation planning, despite their scientific benefits. Instead, the focus should be on developing approaches and collaborative processes to distil and interpret climate information in different contexts, to enable decision-makers to understand the range of plausible futures, including changes in climate alongside growing populations, urbanization and changing economies.
Original languageEnglish
Number of pages16
JournalClimate Policy
Early online date15 Apr 2025
DOIs
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 15 Apr 2025

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2025 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

Keywords

  • climate projections
  • climate adaptation
  • climate services
  • southern Africa
  • decision-making

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