Research output per year
Research output per year
Abstract
To what extent are effectiveness estimates of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 influenced by the assumptions our models make? To answer this question, we investigate 2 state-of-the-art NPI effectiveness models and propose 6 variants that make different structural assumptions. In particular, we investigate how well NPI effectiveness estimates generalise to unseen countries, and their sensitivity to unobserved factors. Models which account for noise in disease transmission compare favourably. We further evaluate how robust estimates are to different choices of epidemiological parameters and data. Focusing on models that assume transmission noise, we find that previously published results are robust across these choices and across different models. Finally, we mathematically ground the interpretation of NPI effectiveness estimates when certain common assumptions do not hold.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Title of host publication | Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems |
| Volume | 33 |
| Publication status | E-pub ahead of print - 2020 |
Structured keywords
- Covid19
- Interactive Artificial Intelligence CDT
Fingerprint
Dive into the research topics of 'How Robust are the Estimated Effects of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions against COVID-19?'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.Research output
- 2 Article (Academic Journal)
-
Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions against COVID-19
Brauner, J. M., Mindermann, S., Sharma, M., Johnston, D., Salvatier, J., Gavenčiak, T., Stephenson, A. B., Leech, G., Altman, G., Mikulik, V., Norman, A. J., Monrad, J. T., Besiroglu, T., Ge, H., Hartwick, M. A., Teh, Y. W., Chindelevitch, L., Gal, Y. & Kulveit, J., 15 Dec 2020, In: Science.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article (Academic Journal) › peer-review
Open Access -
The effectiveness and perceived burden of nonpharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 transmission: a modelling study with 41 countries
Brauner, J. M., Mindermann, S., Sharma, M., Stephenson, A., Gavenciak, T., Johnston, D. W., Salvatier, J., Leech, G., Besiroglu, T., Altman, G., Ge, H., Mikulik, V., Hartwick, M., Whye Teh, Y., Chindelevitch, L., Gal, Y. & Kulveit, J., 2 Jun 2020, (Unpublished) In: medRxiv. 71 p.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article (Academic Journal)
File102 Downloads (Pure)