Identifying the Optimum Strategy for Identifying Adults and Children With Celiac Disease: a cost-effectiveness and value of information analysis

Edna Keeney*, Martha M C Elwenspoek, Joni Jackson, Cristina Roadevin, Hayley E Jones, Rachel O'Donnell, Athena L Sheppard, Sarah Dawson, Deborah Lane, Jo Stubbs, Hazel Everitt, Jessica C Watson, Alastair D Hay, Peter Gillett, Gerry Robins, Sue Mallett, Penny F Whiting, Howard H Z Thom

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle (Academic Journal)peer-review

12 Downloads (Pure)


Celiac disease (CD) is thought to affect around 1% of people in the United Kingdom, but only approximately 30% are diagnosed. The aim of this work was to assess the cost-effectiveness of strategies for identifying adults and children with CD in terms of who to test and which tests to use.

A decision tree and Markov model were used to describe testing strategies and model long-term consequences of CD. The analysis compared a selection of pre-test probabilities of CD above which patients should be screened, as well as the use of different serological tests, with or without genetic testing. Value of information analysis was used to prioritize parameters for future research.

Using serological testing alone in adults, immunoglobulin A (IgA) tissue transglutaminase (tTG) at a 1% pre-test probability (equivalent to population screening) was most cost-effective. If combining serological testing with genetic testing, human leukocyte antigen combined with IgA tTG at a 5% pre-test probability was most cost-effective. In children, the most cost-effective strategy was a 10% pre-test probability with human leukocyte antigen plus IgA tTG. Value of information analysis highlighted the probability of late diagnosis of CD and the accuracy of serological tests as important parameters. The analysis also suggested prioritizing research in adult women over adult men or children.

For adults, these cost-effectiveness results suggest UK National Screening Committee Criteria for population-based screening for CD should be explored. Substantial uncertainty in the results indicate a high value in conducting further research.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)301-312
Number of pages12
JournalValue in Health
Issue number3
Early online date26 Dec 2023
Publication statusPublished - 22 Feb 2024

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2024


Dive into the research topics of 'Identifying the Optimum Strategy for Identifying Adults and Children With Celiac Disease: a cost-effectiveness and value of information analysis'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this