Impact of earthquake-induced bridge damage and time evolving traffic demand on the road network resilience

Damage from recent earthquakes has shown that substandard bridges are particularly vulnerable to strong ground motions being the weakest components of a road network. Structural and foundation damages in bridges lead to a significant loss related to both repair process and a prolonged traffic disruption, which in turn results in large indirect loss in the affected area. Along these lines, the estimation of the overall loss related to earthquake-induced damage in highway bridges and overpasses must be based on a wider network analysis rather than on a single structural assessment. Key concept in such a comprehensive loss estimation procedure is the network resilience, expressing the extent of both direct and indirect loss, as well as the system's ability to quickly recover its pre-earthquake state. In this paper, a recently developed framework for assessing the loss and resilience associated with seismic impact on the structural and geotechnical components of a road network, as well as the relevant software developed are extended to further consider the implications of post-earthquake traffic demand variation. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis is conducted for a case study network to investigate the impact of traffic demand variation after a major earthquake event and the subsequent trip cancelations on the time-variant, cumulative cost at a network level. The results clearly highlight that not only the seismic resilience of a highway network should be assessed in a holistic manner coupling seismic hazard, structural and traffic analysis, but the latter shall include realistic scenarios with respect to the potential variation of origin-destination demand after the earthquake and during the recovery period.