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Abstract
This study investigates the impact of model complexity in source characterization and digital elevation model (DEM) resolution on the accuracy of tsunami hazard assessment and fatality estimation through a case study in Padang, Indonesia. Two types of earthquake source models, i.e. complex and uniform slip models, are adopted by considering three resolutions of DEMs, i.e. 150 m, 50 m, and 10 m. For each of the three grid resolutions, 300 complex source models are generated using new statistical prediction models of earthquake source parameters developed from extensive finitefault models of past subduction earthquakes, whilst 100 uniform slip models are constructed with variable fault geometry without slip heterogeneity. The results highlight that significant changes to tsunami hazard and fatality estimates are observed with regard to earthquake source complexity and grid resolution. Coarse resolution (i.e. 150 m) leads to inaccurate tsunami hazard prediction and fatality estimation, whilst 50m and 10m resolutions produce similar results. However, velocity and momentum flux are sensitive to the grid resolution and hence, at least 10m grid resolution needs to be implemented when considering flowbased parameters for tsunami hazard and risk assessments. In addition, the results indicate that the tsunami hazard parameters and fatality number are more sensitive to the complexity of earthquake source characterization than the grid resolution. Thus, the uniform models are not recommended for probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessments. Finally, the findings confirm that uncertainties of tsunami hazard level and fatality in terms of depth, velocity and momentum flux can be captured and visualized through the complex source modeling approach. From tsunami risk management perspectives, this indeed creates big data, which are useful for making effective and robust decisions.
Original language  English 

Pages (fromto)  83100 
Number of pages  18 
Journal  Computers and Geoscience 
Volume  112 
Early online date  16 Dec 2017 
DOIs  
Publication status  Published  Mar 2018 
Keywords
 DEM resolution
 Earthquake source complexity
 Tsunami hazard
 Tsunami fatality
 Big data
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 1 Finished

CRUST: Cascading Risk and Uncertainty assessment of earthquake Shaking & Tsunami
1/10/14 → 31/03/18
Project: Research