Implications of the power sector emissions on the deep decarbonisation of Nigeria: evaluating long-term model based scenarios

Limited energy access is one of Nigeria’s most pressing development challenges. At the same time, Nigeria has pledged to attain net-zero by 2060. However, science-based evidence that is necessary to support this ambition is still lacking. Thus, this work investigates the implications of the power sector’s emission on Nigeria’s net-zero goal. This research employs three scenarios to decarbonise the Nigeria’s power sector up to 2060. The three scenarios—Current Policy Scenario (CPS), Gas Economy Scenario (GES), and Renewable Energy Scenario (RES), were modelled using the Low Emission Analysis Platform, on the premise that Nigeria achieves its energy-for-all agenda by 2030. The findings suggest that the Nigerian power capacities must grow to 398 GW, 250 GW, and 347 GW in the CPS, GES, and RES, by 2060. Also, the decarbonisation scenarios suggest that the power sector’s emissions would be reduced to 0.5, 0.1, and 0.1 MMT CO2-eq, respectively, for the CPS, GES, and RES, as against 112.5 MMT CO2-eq in the baseline scenario, by 2060. Key message to policy makers is that Nigeria can fulfil its energy-for-all obligation while simultaneously decarbonising the electricity sector towards attaining its net-zero goal. However, this would require a significant rollout of solar energy (in either the CPS or RES scenarios) or large-scale carbon capture installations (in GES). Therefore, unless the government urgently prioritises an uptake of clean technologies, and creates a political environment that encourages investment in clean energy, the country is likely to fall behind in its climate and energy access goals.