Improving the evaluation of hydrological multi-model forecast performance in the upper danube catchment

K. Bogner*, H. L. Cloke, F. Pappenberger, A. de Roo, J. Thielen

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle (Academic Journal)peer-review

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Medium range flood forecasting activities, driven by various meteorological forecasts ranging from high resolution deterministic forecasts to low spatial resolution ensemble prediction systems, share a major challenge in the appropriateness and design of performance measures. In this paper possible limitations of some traditional hydrological and meteorological prediction quality and verification measures are identified. Some simple modifications are applied in order to circumvent the problem of the autocorrelation dominating river discharge time-series and in order to create a benchmark model enabling the decision makers to evaluate the forecast quality and the model quality. Although the performance period is quite short the advantage of a simple cost-loss function as a measure of forecast quality can be demonstrated.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1-12
Number of pages12
JournalInternational Journal of River Basin Management
Volume10
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 5 Dec 2012

Keywords

  • Cost-loss
  • Floods
  • Forecasting
  • Quality
  • Verification

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