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Improving the evaluation of hydrological multi-model forecast performance in the upper danube catchment

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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Improving the evaluation of hydrological multi-model forecast performance in the upper danube catchment. / Bogner, K.; Cloke, H. L.; Pappenberger, F.; de Roo, A.; Thielen, J.

In: International Journal of River Basin Management, Vol. 10, No. 1, 05.12.2012, p. 1-12.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Harvard

Bogner, K, Cloke, HL, Pappenberger, F, de Roo, A & Thielen, J 2012, 'Improving the evaluation of hydrological multi-model forecast performance in the upper danube catchment', International Journal of River Basin Management, vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2011.625359

APA

Bogner, K., Cloke, H. L., Pappenberger, F., de Roo, A., & Thielen, J. (2012). Improving the evaluation of hydrological multi-model forecast performance in the upper danube catchment. International Journal of River Basin Management, 10(1), 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2011.625359

Vancouver

Bogner K, Cloke HL, Pappenberger F, de Roo A, Thielen J. Improving the evaluation of hydrological multi-model forecast performance in the upper danube catchment. International Journal of River Basin Management. 2012 Dec 5;10(1):1-12. https://doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2011.625359

Author

Bogner, K. ; Cloke, H. L. ; Pappenberger, F. ; de Roo, A. ; Thielen, J. / Improving the evaluation of hydrological multi-model forecast performance in the upper danube catchment. In: International Journal of River Basin Management. 2012 ; Vol. 10, No. 1. pp. 1-12.

Bibtex

@article{82c153f66ba2401c94f161bfc775a8d4,
title = "Improving the evaluation of hydrological multi-model forecast performance in the upper danube catchment",
abstract = "Medium range flood forecasting activities, driven by various meteorological forecasts ranging from high resolution deterministic forecasts to low spatial resolution ensemble prediction systems, share a major challenge in the appropriateness and design of performance measures. In this paper possible limitations of some traditional hydrological and meteorological prediction quality and verification measures are identified. Some simple modifications are applied in order to circumvent the problem of the autocorrelation dominating river discharge time-series and in order to create a benchmark model enabling the decision makers to evaluate the forecast quality and the model quality. Although the performance period is quite short the advantage of a simple cost-loss function as a measure of forecast quality can be demonstrated.",
keywords = "Cost-loss, Floods, Forecasting, Quality, Verification",
author = "K. Bogner and Cloke, {H. L.} and F. Pappenberger and {de Roo}, A. and J. Thielen",
year = "2012",
month = "12",
day = "5",
doi = "10.1080/15715124.2011.625359",
language = "English",
volume = "10",
pages = "1--12",
journal = "International Journal of River Basin Management",
issn = "1571-5124",
publisher = "Taylor & Francis Group",
number = "1",

}

RIS - suitable for import to EndNote

TY - JOUR

T1 - Improving the evaluation of hydrological multi-model forecast performance in the upper danube catchment

AU - Bogner, K.

AU - Cloke, H. L.

AU - Pappenberger, F.

AU - de Roo, A.

AU - Thielen, J.

PY - 2012/12/5

Y1 - 2012/12/5

N2 - Medium range flood forecasting activities, driven by various meteorological forecasts ranging from high resolution deterministic forecasts to low spatial resolution ensemble prediction systems, share a major challenge in the appropriateness and design of performance measures. In this paper possible limitations of some traditional hydrological and meteorological prediction quality and verification measures are identified. Some simple modifications are applied in order to circumvent the problem of the autocorrelation dominating river discharge time-series and in order to create a benchmark model enabling the decision makers to evaluate the forecast quality and the model quality. Although the performance period is quite short the advantage of a simple cost-loss function as a measure of forecast quality can be demonstrated.

AB - Medium range flood forecasting activities, driven by various meteorological forecasts ranging from high resolution deterministic forecasts to low spatial resolution ensemble prediction systems, share a major challenge in the appropriateness and design of performance measures. In this paper possible limitations of some traditional hydrological and meteorological prediction quality and verification measures are identified. Some simple modifications are applied in order to circumvent the problem of the autocorrelation dominating river discharge time-series and in order to create a benchmark model enabling the decision makers to evaluate the forecast quality and the model quality. Although the performance period is quite short the advantage of a simple cost-loss function as a measure of forecast quality can be demonstrated.

KW - Cost-loss

KW - Floods

KW - Forecasting

KW - Quality

KW - Verification

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84859335196&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1080/15715124.2011.625359

DO - 10.1080/15715124.2011.625359

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:84859335196

VL - 10

SP - 1

EP - 12

JO - International Journal of River Basin Management

JF - International Journal of River Basin Management

SN - 1571-5124

IS - 1

ER -