Improving the forecast for biodiversity under climate change

Mark C Urban; G Bocedi; A P Hendry; J-B Mihoub; G Pe'er; A Singer; J R Bridle; L G Crozier; L De Meester; W Godsoe; Ana Gonzalez; J J Hellmann; R D Holt; A Huth; K Johst; C B Krug; P W Leadley; S C F Palmer; J H Pantel; A Schmitz; P A Zollner; J M J Travis

doi:10.1126/science.aad8466

Improving the forecast for biodiversity under climate change

Mark C Urban, G Bocedi, A P Hendry, J-B Mihoub, G Pe'er, A Singer, J R Bridle, L G Crozier, L De Meester, W Godsoe, Ana Gonzalez, J J Hellmann, R D Holt, A Huth, K Johst, C B Krug, P W Leadley, S C F Palmer, J H Pantel, A SchmitzP A Zollner, J M J Travis

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Abstract

New biological models are incorporating the realistic processes underlying biological responses to climate change and other human-caused disturbances. However, these more realistic models require detailed information, which is lacking for most species on Earth. Current monitoring efforts mainly document changes in biodiversity, rather than collecting the mechanistic data needed to predict future changes. We describe and prioritize the biological information needed to inform more realistic projections of species' responses to climate change. We also highlight how trait-based approaches and adaptive modeling can leverage sparse data to make broader predictions. We outline a global effort to collect the data necessary to better understand, anticipate, and reduce the damaging effects of climate change on biodiversity.

Original language	English
Article number	aad8466
Number of pages	10
Journal	Science
Volume	353
Issue number	6304
Early online date	9 Sept 2016
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aad8466
Publication status	Published - 9 Sept 2016

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This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1126/science.aad8466

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Ecological and evolutionary effects of climate change on rainforest food webs
Bridle, J.
1/03/16 → 2/05/20
Project: Research

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Urban, M. C., Bocedi, G., Hendry, A. P., Mihoub, J-B., Pe'er, G., Singer, A., Bridle, J. R., Crozier, L. G., De Meester, L., Godsoe, W., Gonzalez, A., Hellmann, J. J., Holt, R. D., Huth, A., Johst, K., Krug, C. B., Leadley, P. W., Palmer, S. C. F., Pantel, J. H., ... Travis, J. M. J. (2016). Improving the forecast for biodiversity under climate change. Science, 353(6304), [aad8466]. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aad8466

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title = "Improving the forecast for biodiversity under climate change",

abstract = "New biological models are incorporating the realistic processes underlying biological responses to climate change and other human-caused disturbances. However, these more realistic models require detailed information, which is lacking for most species on Earth. Current monitoring efforts mainly document changes in biodiversity, rather than collecting the mechanistic data needed to predict future changes. We describe and prioritize the biological information needed to inform more realistic projections of species' responses to climate change. We also highlight how trait-based approaches and adaptive modeling can leverage sparse data to make broader predictions. We outline a global effort to collect the data necessary to better understand, anticipate, and reduce the damaging effects of climate change on biodiversity.",

author = "Urban, {Mark C} and G Bocedi and Hendry, {A P} and J-B Mihoub and G Pe'er and A Singer and Bridle, {J R} and Crozier, {L G} and {De Meester}, L and W Godsoe and Ana Gonzalez and Hellmann, {J J} and Holt, {R D} and A Huth and K Johst and Krug, {C B} and Leadley, {P W} and Palmer, {S C F} and Pantel, {J H} and A Schmitz and Zollner, {P A} and Travis, {J M J}",

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Urban, MC, Bocedi, G, Hendry, AP, Mihoub, J-B, Pe'er, G, Singer, A, Bridle, JR, Crozier, LG, De Meester, L, Godsoe, W, Gonzalez, A, Hellmann, JJ, Holt, RD, Huth, A, Johst, K, Krug, CB, Leadley, PW, Palmer, SCF, Pantel, JH, Schmitz, A, Zollner, PA & Travis, JMJ 2016, 'Improving the forecast for biodiversity under climate change', Science, vol. 353, no. 6304, aad8466. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aad8466

TY - JOUR

T1 - Improving the forecast for biodiversity under climate change

AU - Urban, Mark C

AU - Bocedi, G

AU - Hendry, A P

AU - Mihoub, J-B

AU - Pe'er, G

AU - Singer, A

AU - Bridle, J R

AU - Crozier, L G

AU - De Meester, L

AU - Godsoe, W

AU - Gonzalez, Ana

AU - Hellmann, J J

AU - Holt, R D

AU - Huth, A

AU - Johst, K

AU - Krug, C B

AU - Leadley, P W

AU - Palmer, S C F

AU - Pantel, J H

AU - Schmitz, A

AU - Zollner, P A

AU - Travis, J M J

PY - 2016/9/9

Y1 - 2016/9/9

N2 - New biological models are incorporating the realistic processes underlying biological responses to climate change and other human-caused disturbances. However, these more realistic models require detailed information, which is lacking for most species on Earth. Current monitoring efforts mainly document changes in biodiversity, rather than collecting the mechanistic data needed to predict future changes. We describe and prioritize the biological information needed to inform more realistic projections of species' responses to climate change. We also highlight how trait-based approaches and adaptive modeling can leverage sparse data to make broader predictions. We outline a global effort to collect the data necessary to better understand, anticipate, and reduce the damaging effects of climate change on biodiversity.

AB - New biological models are incorporating the realistic processes underlying biological responses to climate change and other human-caused disturbances. However, these more realistic models require detailed information, which is lacking for most species on Earth. Current monitoring efforts mainly document changes in biodiversity, rather than collecting the mechanistic data needed to predict future changes. We describe and prioritize the biological information needed to inform more realistic projections of species' responses to climate change. We also highlight how trait-based approaches and adaptive modeling can leverage sparse data to make broader predictions. We outline a global effort to collect the data necessary to better understand, anticipate, and reduce the damaging effects of climate change on biodiversity.

U2 - 10.1126/science.aad8466

DO - 10.1126/science.aad8466

M3 - Article (Academic Journal)

C2 - 27609898

SN - 0036-8075

VL - 353

JO - Science

JF - Science

IS - 6304

M1 - aad8466

ER -

Improving the forecast for biodiversity under climate change

Abstract

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Projects

Ecological and evolutionary effects of climate change on rainforest food webs

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