Abstract
Foreseeing population collapse is an on-going target in ecology, and this has led to the development of early warning signals based on expected changes in leading indicators before a bifurcation. Such signals have been sought for in abundance time-series data on a population of interest, with varying degrees of success. Here we move beyond these established methods by including parallel time-series data of abundance and fitness-related trait dynamics. Using data from a microcosm experiment, we show that including information on the dynamics of phenotypic traits such as body size into composite early warning indices can produce more accurate inferences of whether a population is approaching a critical transition than using abundance time-series alone. By including fitness-related trait information alongside traditional abundance-based early warning signals in a single metric of risk, our generalizable approach provides a powerful new way to assess what populations may be on the verge of collapse.
Original language | English |
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Article number | 10984 |
Number of pages | 8 |
Journal | Nature Communications |
Volume | 7 |
Early online date | 24 Mar 2016 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 24 Mar 2016 |
Keywords
- Body Size
- Ciliophora
- Colony Collapse
- Ecosystem
- Paramecium caudatum
- Phenotype
- Population Dynamics
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Dr Chris F Clements
- School of Biological Sciences - Senior Lecturer
- Cabot Institute for the Environment
Person: Academic , Member