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Increase in global emissions of HFC-23 despite near-total expected reductions

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Original languageEnglish
Article number397 (2020)
JournalNature Communications
Volume11
DOIs
DateAccepted/In press - 3 Dec 2019
DatePublished (current) - 21 Jan 2020

Abstract

Under the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, new controls are being implemented to reduce emissions of HFC-23 (CHF3), a by-product during the manufacture of HCFC-22 (CHClF2). Starting in 2015, China and India, who dominate global HCFC-22 production (75% in 2017), set out ambitious programs to reduce HFC-23 emissions. Here, we estimate that these measures should have seen global emissions drop by 87% between 2014 and 2017. Instead, atmospheric observations show that emissions have increased and in 2018 were higher than at any point in history (15.9 ± 0.9 Gg yr−1). Given the magnitude of the discrepancy between expected and observation-inferred emissions, it is likely that the reported reductions have not fully materialized or there may be substantial unreported production of HCFC-22, resulting in unaccounted-for HFC-23 by-product emissions. The difference between reported and observation-inferred estimates suggests that an additional ~309 Tg CO2-equivalent emissions were added to the atmosphere between 2015 and 2017.

    Research areas

  • HFC, Montreal Protocol, Kigali, Emissions

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    Rights statement: This is the final published version of the article (version of record). It first appeared online via Nature Research at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-13899-4 . Please refer to any applicable terms of use of the publisher.

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