Increasing mitigation ambition to meet the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal avoids substantial heat-related mortality in U.S. cities

Y. T. Eunice Lo, Daniel M. Mitchell, Antonio Gasparrini, Ana Vicedo-Cabrera, Kristie L. Ebi, Peter Frumhoff, Richard J. Millar, William Roberts, Francesco Sera, Sarah Sparrow, Peter Uhe, Gethin Williams

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle (Academic Journal)

9 Citations (Scopus)
191 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Current greenhouse gas mitigation ambition is consistent with ~3°C global mean warming above preindustrial levels. There is a clear need to strengthen mitigation ambition to stabilize the climate at the Paris Agreement goal of warming of less than 2°C. We specify the differences in city-level heat-related mortality between the 3°C trajectory and warming of 2° and 1.5°C. Focusing on 15 U.S. cities where reliable climate and health data are available, we show that ratcheting up mitigation ambition to achieve the 2°C threshold could avoid between 70 and 1980 annual heat-related deaths per city during extreme events (30-year return period). Achieving the 1.5°C threshold could avoid between 110 and 2720 annual heat-related deaths. Population changes and adaptation investments would alter these numbers. Our results provide compelling evidence for the heat-related health benefits of limiting global warming to 1.5°C in the United States.
Original languageEnglish
Article numbereaau4373
Number of pages9
JournalScience Advances
Volume5
Issue number6
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 5 Jun 2019

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    Lo, Y. T. E., Mitchell, D. M., Gasparrini, A., Vicedo-Cabrera, A., Ebi, K. L., Frumhoff, P., Millar, R. J., Roberts, W., Sera, F., Sparrow, S., Uhe, P., & Williams, G. (2019). Increasing mitigation ambition to meet the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal avoids substantial heat-related mortality in U.S. cities. Science Advances, 5(6), [eaau4373]. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aau4373