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Increasing mitigation ambition to meet the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal avoids substantial heat-related mortality in U.S. cities

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Increasing mitigation ambition to meet the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal avoids substantial heat-related mortality in U.S. cities. / Lo, Y. T. Eunice; Mitchell, Daniel M.; Gasparrini, Antonio; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana; Ebi, Kristie L.; Frumhoff, Peter; Millar, Richard J.; Roberts, William; Sera, Francesco; Sparrow, Sarah; Uhe, Peter; Williams, Gethin.

In: Science Advances, Vol. 5, No. 6, eaau4373, 05.06.2019.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Harvard

Lo, YTE, Mitchell, DM, Gasparrini, A, Vicedo-Cabrera, A, Ebi, KL, Frumhoff, P, Millar, RJ, Roberts, W, Sera, F, Sparrow, S, Uhe, P & Williams, G 2019, 'Increasing mitigation ambition to meet the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal avoids substantial heat-related mortality in U.S. cities', Science Advances, vol. 5, no. 6, eaau4373. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aau4373

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Author

Lo, Y. T. Eunice ; Mitchell, Daniel M. ; Gasparrini, Antonio ; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana ; Ebi, Kristie L. ; Frumhoff, Peter ; Millar, Richard J. ; Roberts, William ; Sera, Francesco ; Sparrow, Sarah ; Uhe, Peter ; Williams, Gethin. / Increasing mitigation ambition to meet the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal avoids substantial heat-related mortality in U.S. cities. In: Science Advances. 2019 ; Vol. 5, No. 6.

Bibtex

@article{feffe85143cf4f3d8af88d25b8bbc89c,
title = "Increasing mitigation ambition to meet the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal avoids substantial heat-related mortality in U.S. cities",
abstract = "Current greenhouse gas mitigation ambition is consistent with ~3°C global mean warming above preindustrial levels. There is a clear need to strengthen mitigation ambition to stabilize the climate at the Paris Agreement goal of warming of less than 2°C. We specify the differences in city-level heat-related mortality between the 3°C trajectory and warming of 2° and 1.5°C. Focusing on 15 U.S. cities where reliable climate and health data are available, we show that ratcheting up mitigation ambition to achieve the 2°C threshold could avoid between 70 and 1980 annual heat-related deaths per city during extreme events (30-year return period). Achieving the 1.5°C threshold could avoid between 110 and 2720 annual heat-related deaths. Population changes and adaptation investments would alter these numbers. Our results provide compelling evidence for the heat-related health benefits of limiting global warming to 1.5°C in the United States.",
author = "Lo, {Y. T. Eunice} and Mitchell, {Daniel M.} and Antonio Gasparrini and Ana Vicedo-Cabrera and Ebi, {Kristie L.} and Peter Frumhoff and Millar, {Richard J.} and William Roberts and Francesco Sera and Sarah Sparrow and Peter Uhe and Gethin Williams",
year = "2019",
month = "6",
day = "5",
doi = "10.1126/sciadv.aau4373",
language = "English",
volume = "5",
journal = "Science Advances",
issn = "2375-2548",
publisher = "American Association for the Advancement of Science",
number = "6",

}

RIS - suitable for import to EndNote

TY - JOUR

T1 - Increasing mitigation ambition to meet the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal avoids substantial heat-related mortality in U.S. cities

AU - Lo, Y. T. Eunice

AU - Mitchell, Daniel M.

AU - Gasparrini, Antonio

AU - Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana

AU - Ebi, Kristie L.

AU - Frumhoff, Peter

AU - Millar, Richard J.

AU - Roberts, William

AU - Sera, Francesco

AU - Sparrow, Sarah

AU - Uhe, Peter

AU - Williams, Gethin

PY - 2019/6/5

Y1 - 2019/6/5

N2 - Current greenhouse gas mitigation ambition is consistent with ~3°C global mean warming above preindustrial levels. There is a clear need to strengthen mitigation ambition to stabilize the climate at the Paris Agreement goal of warming of less than 2°C. We specify the differences in city-level heat-related mortality between the 3°C trajectory and warming of 2° and 1.5°C. Focusing on 15 U.S. cities where reliable climate and health data are available, we show that ratcheting up mitigation ambition to achieve the 2°C threshold could avoid between 70 and 1980 annual heat-related deaths per city during extreme events (30-year return period). Achieving the 1.5°C threshold could avoid between 110 and 2720 annual heat-related deaths. Population changes and adaptation investments would alter these numbers. Our results provide compelling evidence for the heat-related health benefits of limiting global warming to 1.5°C in the United States.

AB - Current greenhouse gas mitigation ambition is consistent with ~3°C global mean warming above preindustrial levels. There is a clear need to strengthen mitigation ambition to stabilize the climate at the Paris Agreement goal of warming of less than 2°C. We specify the differences in city-level heat-related mortality between the 3°C trajectory and warming of 2° and 1.5°C. Focusing on 15 U.S. cities where reliable climate and health data are available, we show that ratcheting up mitigation ambition to achieve the 2°C threshold could avoid between 70 and 1980 annual heat-related deaths per city during extreme events (30-year return period). Achieving the 1.5°C threshold could avoid between 110 and 2720 annual heat-related deaths. Population changes and adaptation investments would alter these numbers. Our results provide compelling evidence for the heat-related health benefits of limiting global warming to 1.5°C in the United States.

U2 - 10.1126/sciadv.aau4373

DO - 10.1126/sciadv.aau4373

M3 - Article

C2 - 31183397

VL - 5

JO - Science Advances

JF - Science Advances

SN - 2375-2548

IS - 6

M1 - eaau4373

ER -