Interpreting changes in the Philippines’ South China Sea policy: insights from the foreign and public policy literatures

The alterations in the Philippines’ South China Sea policies across different Philippine leaders are puzzling. The display of decisiveness against China identified in Aquino and Marcos’ terms was undermined under Duterte’s leadership by the downplaying of the arbitral tribunal’s significance, harsh rhetoric against the US, and a series of appeasement policies to maintain warm relations with China. Bridging the foreign and public policy literatures, this study argues for the relevance of the following analytical frameworks for making sense of the policy changes. First, with the aim of typologizing changes, this study bridges Hermann’s ‘four graduated levels of change’ and Rosati’s ‘categorization of change’ to situate alterations within a broader, consistent conceptualization of foreign policy change. Second, to make sense of why the policy changes occurred, this study bridges Brummer’s introduced variables of core belief systems and policy image as factors affecting policy changes.