Investigating the potential use of System Dynamics as a tool for event analysis in the nuclear industry

The current methods for investigating and analysing the causal nature of events stem from a linear, reductionist paradigm. The existing tools are being stretched by the feedback and non-linear interactions in the tightly-coupled Complex Socio-Technical Systems they are being applied within. The individual shortfalls identified by the current methods do not give the full picture of the causality of the emerging events. System Dynamics is proposed and investigated as a tool to provide an alternative, more holistic view of their development to complement the present one. It is hypothesised that leading indicators to significant events can be found in the form of “system archetypes” (common structural and behavioural states) through the use of System Dynamics in modelling past events. Two case studies into its use are discussed along with the challenges they present. Initial findings suggest that un-simulated qualitative models are relatively quick and easy to produce and can provide additional insight. Those conducting the investigations rarely have the time or resources to collect data and produce models suitable for simulation. This means that the tool is not always used to its full potential as without simulation the emergent behaviours of the system are not necessarily observable. Despite this the diagrams can provide a useful alternative way of looking at the development of incidents and the ‘mental models’ of the groups and individuals involved.