Is the recent rise in type 2 diabetes incidence from 1984 to 2007 explained by the trend in increasing BMI? evidence from a prospective study of British men

Sarah L Hardoon, Richard W Morris, Mary C Thomas, S Goya Wannamethee, Lucy T Lennon, Peter H Whincup

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle (Academic Journal)peer-review

24 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the extent to which increasing BMI may explain the rise in type 2 diabetes incidence in British men from 1984 to 2007.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A representative cohort ratio of 6,460 British men was followed-up for type 2 diabetes incidence between 1984 (aged 45-65 years) and 2007 (aged 67-89 years). BMI was ascertained at regular intervals before and during the follow-up.

RESULTS: Between 1984-1992 and 1999-2007, the age-adjusted hazard of type 2 diabetes more than doubled (hazard ratio 2.33 [95% CI 1.75-3.10]). Mean BMI rose by 1.42 kg/m(2) (95% CI 1.10-1.74) between 1984 and 1999; this could explain 26% (95% CI 17-38) of the type 2 diabetes increase.

CONCLUSIONS: An appreciable portion of the rise in type 2 diabetes can be attributed to BMI changes. A substantial portion remains unexplained, possibly associated with other determinants such as physical activity. This merits further research.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1494-1496
Number of pages3
JournalDiabetes Care
Volume33
Issue number7
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jul 2010

Keywords

  • Adipose Tissue
  • Age Distribution
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Body Mass Index
  • Cohort Studies
  • Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2
  • Follow-Up Studies
  • Great Britain
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Prospective Studies

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