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Is there a Bayesian justification of hypothetico-deductive inference?

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Is there a Bayesian justification of hypothetico-deductive inference? / Okasha, Samir; Thebault, Karim.

In: Noûs, 30.01.2019.

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@article{21188cfd9fda49cdb9ffb5e37e365e76,
title = "Is there a Bayesian justification of hypothetico-deductive inference?",
abstract = "Many philosophers have claimed that Bayesianism can provide a simple justification for hypothetico-deductive (H-D) inference, long regarded as a cornerstone of the scientific method. Following up a remark of van Fraassen (1985), we analyze a problem for the putative Bayesian justification of H-D inference in the case where what we learn from observation is logically stronger than what our theory implies. Firstly, we demonstrate that in such cases the simple Bayesian justification does not necessarily apply. Secondly, we identify a set of sufficient conditions for the mismatch in logical strength to be justifiably ignored as a {"}harmless idealization''. Thirdly, we argue, based upon scientific examples, that the pattern of H-D inference of which there is a ready Bayesian justification is only rarely the pattern that one actually finds at work in science. Whatever the other virtues of Bayesianism, the idea that it yields a simple justification of a pervasive pattern of scientific inference appears to have been oversold.",
keywords = "hypothetico-deductive inference, Bayesian confirmation theory",
author = "Samir Okasha and Karim Thebault",
year = "2019",
month = "1",
day = "30",
doi = "10.1111/nous.12277",
language = "English",
journal = "No{\^u}s",
issn = "0029-4624",
publisher = "Wiley",

}

RIS - suitable for import to EndNote

TY - JOUR

T1 - Is there a Bayesian justification of hypothetico-deductive inference?

AU - Okasha, Samir

AU - Thebault, Karim

PY - 2019/1/30

Y1 - 2019/1/30

N2 - Many philosophers have claimed that Bayesianism can provide a simple justification for hypothetico-deductive (H-D) inference, long regarded as a cornerstone of the scientific method. Following up a remark of van Fraassen (1985), we analyze a problem for the putative Bayesian justification of H-D inference in the case where what we learn from observation is logically stronger than what our theory implies. Firstly, we demonstrate that in such cases the simple Bayesian justification does not necessarily apply. Secondly, we identify a set of sufficient conditions for the mismatch in logical strength to be justifiably ignored as a "harmless idealization''. Thirdly, we argue, based upon scientific examples, that the pattern of H-D inference of which there is a ready Bayesian justification is only rarely the pattern that one actually finds at work in science. Whatever the other virtues of Bayesianism, the idea that it yields a simple justification of a pervasive pattern of scientific inference appears to have been oversold.

AB - Many philosophers have claimed that Bayesianism can provide a simple justification for hypothetico-deductive (H-D) inference, long regarded as a cornerstone of the scientific method. Following up a remark of van Fraassen (1985), we analyze a problem for the putative Bayesian justification of H-D inference in the case where what we learn from observation is logically stronger than what our theory implies. Firstly, we demonstrate that in such cases the simple Bayesian justification does not necessarily apply. Secondly, we identify a set of sufficient conditions for the mismatch in logical strength to be justifiably ignored as a "harmless idealization''. Thirdly, we argue, based upon scientific examples, that the pattern of H-D inference of which there is a ready Bayesian justification is only rarely the pattern that one actually finds at work in science. Whatever the other virtues of Bayesianism, the idea that it yields a simple justification of a pervasive pattern of scientific inference appears to have been oversold.

KW - hypothetico-deductive inference

KW - Bayesian confirmation theory

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85061005494&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1111/nous.12277

DO - 10.1111/nous.12277

M3 - Article

JO - Noûs

JF - Noûs

SN - 0029-4624

ER -