Large-scale replication study reveals a limit on probabilistic prediction in language comprehension

Mante S Nieuwland; Stephen Politzer-Ahles; Evelien Heyselaar; Katrien Segaert; Emily Darley; Nina Kazanina; Sarah Von Grebmer Zu Wolfsthurn; Federica Bartolozzi; Vita Kogan; Aine Ito; Diane Mézière; Dale J Barr; Guillaume A Rousselet; Heather J Ferguson; Simon Busch-Moreno; Xiao Fu; Jyrki Tuomainen; Eugenia Kulakova; E Matthew Husband; David I Donaldson; Zdenko Kohút; Shirley-Ann Rueschemeyer; Falk Huettig

doi:10.7554/eLife.33468

Large-scale replication study reveals a limit on probabilistic prediction in language comprehension

Mante S Nieuwland, Stephen Politzer-Ahles, Evelien Heyselaar, Katrien Segaert, Emily Darley, Nina Kazanina, Sarah Von Grebmer Zu Wolfsthurn, Federica Bartolozzi, Vita Kogan, Aine Ito, Diane Mézière, Dale J Barr, Guillaume A Rousselet, Heather J Ferguson, Simon Busch-Moreno, Xiao Fu, Jyrki Tuomainen, Eugenia Kulakova, E Matthew Husband, David I DonaldsonZdenko Kohút, Shirley-Ann Rueschemeyer, Falk Huettig

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Abstract

Do people routinely pre-activate the meaning and even the phonological form of upcoming words? The most acclaimed evidence for phonological prediction comes from a 2005 Nature Neuroscience publication by DeLong, Urbach and Kutas, who observed a graded modulation of electrical brain potentials (N400) to nouns and preceding articles by the probability that people use a word to continue the sentence fragment ('cloze'). In our direct replication study spanning 9 laboratories (N=334), pre-registered replication-analyses and exploratory Bayes factor analyses successfully replicated the noun-results but, crucially, not the article-results. Pre-registered single-trial analyses also yielded a statistically significant effect for the nouns but not the articles. Exploratory Bayesian single-trial analyses showed that the article-effect may be non-zero but is likely far smaller than originally reported and too small to observe without very large sample sizes. Our results do not support the view that readers routinely pre-activate the phonological form of predictable words.

Original language	English
Article number	e33468
Number of pages	24
Journal	eLife
Volume	7
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.33468
Publication status	Published - 3 Apr 2018

Research Groups and Themes

Language
Cognitive Science
Brain and Behaviour
Cognitive Neuroscience

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Nieuwland, M. S., Politzer-Ahles, S., Heyselaar, E., Segaert, K., Darley, E., Kazanina, N., Von Grebmer Zu Wolfsthurn, S., Bartolozzi, F., Kogan, V., Ito, A., Mézière, D., Barr, D. J., Rousselet, G. A., Ferguson, H. J., Busch-Moreno, S., Fu, X., Tuomainen, J., Kulakova, E., Husband, E. M., ... Huettig, F. (2018). Large-scale replication study reveals a limit on probabilistic prediction in language comprehension. eLife, 7, Article e33468. https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.33468

@article{e24733b634e14b25b552574f4b7ed13c,

title = "Large-scale replication study reveals a limit on probabilistic prediction in language comprehension",

abstract = "Do people routinely pre-activate the meaning and even the phonological form of upcoming words? The most acclaimed evidence for phonological prediction comes from a 2005 Nature Neuroscience publication by DeLong, Urbach and Kutas, who observed a graded modulation of electrical brain potentials (N400) to nouns and preceding articles by the probability that people use a word to continue the sentence fragment ('cloze'). In our direct replication study spanning 9 laboratories (N=334), pre-registered replication-analyses and exploratory Bayes factor analyses successfully replicated the noun-results but, crucially, not the article-results. Pre-registered single-trial analyses also yielded a statistically significant effect for the nouns but not the articles. Exploratory Bayesian single-trial analyses showed that the article-effect may be non-zero but is likely far smaller than originally reported and too small to observe without very large sample sizes. Our results do not support the view that readers routinely pre-activate the phonological form of predictable words.",

author = "Nieuwland, {Mante S} and Stephen Politzer-Ahles and Evelien Heyselaar and Katrien Segaert and Emily Darley and Nina Kazanina and {Von Grebmer Zu Wolfsthurn}, Sarah and Federica Bartolozzi and Vita Kogan and Aine Ito and Diane M{\'e}zi{\`e}re and Barr, {Dale J} and Rousselet, {Guillaume A} and Ferguson, {Heather J} and Simon Busch-Moreno and Xiao Fu and Jyrki Tuomainen and Eugenia Kulakova and Husband, {E Matthew} and Donaldson, {David I} and Zdenko Koh{\'u}t and Shirley-Ann Rueschemeyer and Falk Huettig",

note = "{\textcopyright} 2018, Nieuwland et al.",

year = "2018",

month = apr,

day = "3",

doi = "10.7554/eLife.33468",

language = "English",

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issn = "2050-084X",

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Nieuwland, MS, Politzer-Ahles, S, Heyselaar, E, Segaert, K, Darley, E, Kazanina, N, Von Grebmer Zu Wolfsthurn, S, Bartolozzi, F, Kogan, V, Ito, A, Mézière, D, Barr, DJ, Rousselet, GA, Ferguson, HJ, Busch-Moreno, S, Fu, X, Tuomainen, J, Kulakova, E, Husband, EM, Donaldson, DI, Kohút, Z, Rueschemeyer, S-A & Huettig, F 2018, 'Large-scale replication study reveals a limit on probabilistic prediction in language comprehension', eLife, vol. 7, e33468. https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.33468

TY - JOUR

T1 - Large-scale replication study reveals a limit on probabilistic prediction in language comprehension

AU - Nieuwland, Mante S

AU - Politzer-Ahles, Stephen

AU - Heyselaar, Evelien

AU - Segaert, Katrien

AU - Darley, Emily

AU - Kazanina, Nina

AU - Von Grebmer Zu Wolfsthurn, Sarah

AU - Bartolozzi, Federica

AU - Kogan, Vita

AU - Ito, Aine

AU - Mézière, Diane

AU - Barr, Dale J

AU - Rousselet, Guillaume A

AU - Ferguson, Heather J

AU - Busch-Moreno, Simon

AU - Fu, Xiao

AU - Tuomainen, Jyrki

AU - Kulakova, Eugenia

AU - Husband, E Matthew

AU - Donaldson, David I

AU - Kohút, Zdenko

AU - Rueschemeyer, Shirley-Ann

AU - Huettig, Falk

PY - 2018/4/3

Y1 - 2018/4/3

N2 - Do people routinely pre-activate the meaning and even the phonological form of upcoming words? The most acclaimed evidence for phonological prediction comes from a 2005 Nature Neuroscience publication by DeLong, Urbach and Kutas, who observed a graded modulation of electrical brain potentials (N400) to nouns and preceding articles by the probability that people use a word to continue the sentence fragment ('cloze'). In our direct replication study spanning 9 laboratories (N=334), pre-registered replication-analyses and exploratory Bayes factor analyses successfully replicated the noun-results but, crucially, not the article-results. Pre-registered single-trial analyses also yielded a statistically significant effect for the nouns but not the articles. Exploratory Bayesian single-trial analyses showed that the article-effect may be non-zero but is likely far smaller than originally reported and too small to observe without very large sample sizes. Our results do not support the view that readers routinely pre-activate the phonological form of predictable words.

AB - Do people routinely pre-activate the meaning and even the phonological form of upcoming words? The most acclaimed evidence for phonological prediction comes from a 2005 Nature Neuroscience publication by DeLong, Urbach and Kutas, who observed a graded modulation of electrical brain potentials (N400) to nouns and preceding articles by the probability that people use a word to continue the sentence fragment ('cloze'). In our direct replication study spanning 9 laboratories (N=334), pre-registered replication-analyses and exploratory Bayes factor analyses successfully replicated the noun-results but, crucially, not the article-results. Pre-registered single-trial analyses also yielded a statistically significant effect for the nouns but not the articles. Exploratory Bayesian single-trial analyses showed that the article-effect may be non-zero but is likely far smaller than originally reported and too small to observe without very large sample sizes. Our results do not support the view that readers routinely pre-activate the phonological form of predictable words.

U2 - 10.7554/eLife.33468

DO - 10.7554/eLife.33468

M3 - Article (Academic Journal)

C2 - 29631695

SN - 2050-084X

VL - 7

JO - eLife

JF - eLife

M1 - e33468

ER -

Large-scale replication study reveals a limit on probabilistic prediction in language comprehension

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