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Limiting global warming to 1.5ºC will lower increases in inequalities of four hazard indicators of climate change

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  • Hideo Shiogama
  • Tomoko Hasegawa
  • Shinichiro Fujimori
  • Daisuke Murakami
  • Kiyoshi Takahashi
  • Katsumasa Tanaka
  • Seita Emori
  • Izumi Kubota
  • Manabu Abe
  • Yukiko Imada
  • Masahiro Watanabe
  • Daniel M. Mitchell
  • Nathalie Schaller
  • Jana Sillmann
  • Erich M. Fischer
  • John Scinocca
  • Ingo Bethke
  • Ludwig Lierhammer
  • Jun'ya Takakura
  • Tim Trautmann
  • Petra Doell
  • Sebastian Ostberg
  • Hannes Müller Schmied
  • Fahad Saeed
  • Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Original languageEnglish
JournalEnvironmental Research Letters
Issue number12
Early online date29 Oct 2019
DateAccepted/In press - 29 Oct 2019
DateE-pub ahead of print - 29 Oct 2019
DatePublished (current) - 29 Nov 2019


Clarifying characteristics of hazards and risks of climate change at 2ºC and 1.5ºC global warming is important for understanding the implications of the Paris Agreement. We perform and analyse large ensembles of 2ºC and 1.5ºC warming simulations. In the 2ºC runs, we find substantial increases in extreme hot days, heavy rainfalls, high streamflow and labor capacity reduction related to heat stress. For example, about half of the world's population is projected to experience a present day 1-in-10 year hot day event every other year at 2ºC warming. The regions with large increases of these four hazard indicators coincide with countries characterized by small CO2 emissions, low-income and high vulnerability. Limiting global warming to 1.5ºC, compared to 2ºC, is projected to lower increases in the four hazard indicators especially in those regions.

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