The UK's population is aging, which presents a challenge as older people are the primary users of health and social care services. We present an agent-based model of the basic demographic processes that impinge on the supply of, and demand for, social care: namely mortality, fertility, health-status transitions, internal migration, and the formation and dissolution of partnerships and households. Agent-based modeling is used to capture the idea of 'linked lives' and thus to represent hypotheses that are impossible to express in alternative formalisms. Simulation runs suggest that the per-taxpayer cost of state-funded social care could double over the next forty years. A key benefit of the approach is that we can treat the average cost of state-funded care as an outcome variable, and examine the projected effect of different sets of assumptions about the relevant social processes.
|Title of host publication||Proceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference 2012 (WSC2012)|
|Editors||Christoph Laroque, Jan Himmelspach, Raghu Pasupathy, O. Rose, A. M. Uhrmacher|
|Publisher||Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE)|
|Number of pages||12|
|Publication status||Published - 2012|