Macro-Scale Stability with Micro-Scale Diversity: Modelling Changing Ethnic Minority Residential Segregation – London 2001-2011

Ethnic residential segregation is a frequent issue raised in commentaries regarding British cities, with many claims that it is increasing and posing a threat to social cohesion. Most academic studies of ethnic residential segregation there have shown that it has decreased recently, however, although the statistical significance of their findings is not evaluated. In addition, those studies very largely ignore issues of spatial scale, both in the measurement of segregation and the processes leading to its creation. The present paper rectifies that situation by, for the first time, modelling ethnic segregation in London at the 2001 and 2011 censuses within a Bayesian statistical framework at three scales, which allows for the statistical significance of any changes to be formally assessed – something not possible heretofore. It finds that for most of the seven ethnic minority groups studied segregation was as great, if not greater, at the macro- as at the micro-scale, with both measures larger than at the meso-scale, and with significant reductions in segregation across the decade, especially at the micro-scale.