Major agricultural changes required to mitigate phosphorus losses under climate change

Ockenden Mary; M J Holloway; Keith Beven; Adrian Collins; R Evans; Pete Falloon; K J  Forber; Kevin Hiscock; R Kahana; C J A Macleod; W Tych; M L Villamizar; C Wearing; P J Withers; J G Zhou; P A Barker; S Burke; Jim Freer; Penny Johnes; M Snell; Ben Surridge; Phil Haygarth

doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00232-0

Major agricultural changes required to mitigate phosphorus losses under climate change

Ockenden Mary
, M J Holloway
, Keith Beven
, Adrian Collins
, R Evans
, Pete Falloon
, K J Forber
, Kevin Hiscock
, R Kahana
, C J A Macleod
, W Tych
, M L Villamizar
, C Wearing
, P J Withers
, J G Zhou
, P A Barker
, S Burke
, Jim Freer
, Penny Johnes
, M Snell

Ben Surridge, Phil Haygarth

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article (Academic Journal) › peer-review

174 Citations (Scopus)

415 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Phosphorus losses from land to water will be impacted by climate change and land management for food production, with detrimental impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Here we use a unique combination of methods to evaluate the impact of projected climate change on future phosphorus transfers, and to assess what scale of agricultural change would be needed to mitigate these transfers. We combine novel high-frequency phosphorus flux data from three representative catchments across the UK, a new high-spatial resolution climate model, uncertainty estimates from an ensemble of future climate simulations, two phosphorus transfer models of contrasting complexity and a simplified representation of the potential intensification of agriculture based on expert elicitation from land managers. We show that the effect of climate change on average winter phosphorus loads (predicted increase up to 30% by 2050s) will be limited only by large-scale agricultural changes (e.g., 20–80% reduction in phosphorus inputs).

Original language	English
Article number	161
Number of pages	9
Journal	Nature Communications
Volume	8
Early online date	31 Jul 2017
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00232-0
Publication status	E-pub ahead of print - 31 Jul 2017

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 2 Zero Hunger
SDG 13 Climate Action
SDG 15 Life on Land

Keywords

Climate - change adaptation
Element cycles
Environmental Health
Hydrology

Access to Document

10.1038/s41467-017-00232-0

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This is the final published version of the article (version of record). It first appeared online via Nature at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-00232-0. Please refer to any applicable terms of use of the publisher.
Final published version, 1.02 MBLicence: CC BY

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Demonstration Test Catchments - Phase 2: Demonstration Test Catchment - Phase 2
Johnes, P. J. (Principal Investigator)
1/04/15 → 31/03/19
Project: Research
DOMAINE: Characterisation of the nature, origins and ecological significance of dissolved organic matter in freshwater ecosystems
Johnes, P. J. (Principal Investigator), Evershed, R. P. (Co-Principal Investigator), Jones, D. (Co-Principal Investigator), Maberly, S. (Co-Principal Investigator), Jickells, T. (Co-Principal Investigator), Yates, C. A. (Researcher), Lloyd, C. E. M. (Researcher), Glanville, H. (Researcher), Mackay, E. (Researcher), Harrison, R. V. (Other ), Bayliss, C. E. (Student), Pemberton, J. (Student), Reay, M. (Student), Brailsford, F. (Technician), McIntyre, C. A. (Student), Owen, A. T. (Technician), Hopes, M. (Student), Evans, C. (Collaborator), Fenner, N. (Collaborator), Golyshin, P. (Collaborator), Ferrer, M. (Collaborator), Marshall, M. (Researcher) & Cooper, D. (Researcher)
1/04/14 → 31/12/19
Project: Research

Professor Penny J Johnes
- penny.johnesbristol.acuk
- Hydrology - Professor of Biogeochemistry
- School of Geographical Sciences - Professor of Biogeochemistry
- Cabot Institute for the Environment
Person: Academic , Member

Cite this

Mary, O., Holloway, M. J., Beven, K., Collins, A., Evans, R., Falloon, P., Forber, K. J., Hiscock, K., Kahana, R., Macleod, C. J. A., Tych, W., Villamizar, M. L., Wearing, C., Withers, P. J., Zhou, J. G., Barker, P. A., Burke, S., Freer, J., Johnes, P., ... Haygarth, P. (2017). Major agricultural changes required to mitigate phosphorus losses under climate change. Nature Communications, 8, Article 161. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00232-0

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title = "Major agricultural changes required to mitigate phosphorus losses under climate change",

abstract = "Phosphorus losses from land to water will be impacted by climate change and land management for food production, with detrimental impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Here we use a unique combination of methods to evaluate the impact of projected climate change on future phosphorus transfers, and to assess what scale of agricultural change would be needed to mitigate these transfers. We combine novel high-frequency phosphorus flux data from three representative catchments across the UK, a new high-spatial resolution climate model, uncertainty estimates from an ensemble of future climate simulations, two phosphorus transfer models of contrasting complexity and a simplified representation of the potential intensification of agriculture based on expert elicitation from land managers. We show that the effect of climate change on average winter phosphorus loads (predicted increase up to 30\% by 2050s) will be limited only by large-scale agricultural changes (e.g., 20–80\% reduction in phosphorus inputs).",

keywords = "Climate - change adaptation, Element cycles, Environmental Health, Hydrology",

author = "Ockenden Mary and Holloway, \{M J\} and Keith Beven and Adrian Collins and R Evans and Pete Falloon and Forber, \{K J\} and Kevin Hiscock and R Kahana and Macleod, \{C J A\} and W Tych and Villamizar, \{M L\} and C Wearing and Withers, \{P J\} and Zhou, \{J G\} and Barker, \{P A\} and S Burke and Jim Freer and Penny Johnes and M Snell and Ben Surridge and Phil Haygarth",

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doi = "10.1038/s41467-017-00232-0",

language = "English",

volume = "8",

journal = "Nature Communications",

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Mary, O, Holloway, MJ, Beven, K, Collins, A, Evans, R, Falloon, P, Forber, KJ, Hiscock, K, Kahana, R, Macleod, CJA, Tych, W, Villamizar, ML, Wearing, C, Withers, PJ, Zhou, JG, Barker, PA, Burke, S, Freer, J, Johnes, P, Snell, M, Surridge, B & Haygarth, P 2017, 'Major agricultural changes required to mitigate phosphorus losses under climate change', Nature Communications, vol. 8, 161. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00232-0

TY - JOUR

T1 - Major agricultural changes required to mitigate phosphorus losses under climate change

AU - Mary, Ockenden

AU - Holloway, M J

AU - Beven, Keith

AU - Collins, Adrian

AU - Evans, R

AU - Falloon, Pete

AU - Forber, K J

AU - Hiscock, Kevin

AU - Kahana, R

AU - Macleod, C J A

AU - Tych, W

AU - Villamizar, M L

AU - Wearing, C

AU - Withers, P J

AU - Zhou, J G

AU - Barker, P A

AU - Burke, S

AU - Freer, Jim

AU - Johnes, Penny

AU - Snell, M

AU - Surridge, Ben

AU - Haygarth, Phil

PY - 2017/7/31

Y1 - 2017/7/31

N2 - Phosphorus losses from land to water will be impacted by climate change and land management for food production, with detrimental impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Here we use a unique combination of methods to evaluate the impact of projected climate change on future phosphorus transfers, and to assess what scale of agricultural change would be needed to mitigate these transfers. We combine novel high-frequency phosphorus flux data from three representative catchments across the UK, a new high-spatial resolution climate model, uncertainty estimates from an ensemble of future climate simulations, two phosphorus transfer models of contrasting complexity and a simplified representation of the potential intensification of agriculture based on expert elicitation from land managers. We show that the effect of climate change on average winter phosphorus loads (predicted increase up to 30% by 2050s) will be limited only by large-scale agricultural changes (e.g., 20–80% reduction in phosphorus inputs).

AB - Phosphorus losses from land to water will be impacted by climate change and land management for food production, with detrimental impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Here we use a unique combination of methods to evaluate the impact of projected climate change on future phosphorus transfers, and to assess what scale of agricultural change would be needed to mitigate these transfers. We combine novel high-frequency phosphorus flux data from three representative catchments across the UK, a new high-spatial resolution climate model, uncertainty estimates from an ensemble of future climate simulations, two phosphorus transfer models of contrasting complexity and a simplified representation of the potential intensification of agriculture based on expert elicitation from land managers. We show that the effect of climate change on average winter phosphorus loads (predicted increase up to 30% by 2050s) will be limited only by large-scale agricultural changes (e.g., 20–80% reduction in phosphorus inputs).

KW - Climate - change adaptation

KW - Element cycles

KW - Environmental Health

KW - Hydrology

U2 - 10.1038/s41467-017-00232-0

DO - 10.1038/s41467-017-00232-0

M3 - Article (Academic Journal)

C2 - 28757602

SN - 2041-1723

VL - 8

JO - Nature Communications

JF - Nature Communications

M1 - 161

ER -

Major agricultural changes required to mitigate phosphorus losses under climate change

Abstract

UN SDGs

Keywords

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Projects

Demonstration Test Catchments - Phase 2: Demonstration Test Catchment - Phase 2

DOMAINE: Characterisation of the nature, origins and ecological significance of dissolved organic matter in freshwater ecosystems

Profiles

Professor Penny J Johnes

Cite this