Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity

EJ Rohling; A Sluijs; H.A Dijkstra; P Kohler; RSW van de Wal; A.S Von Der Heydt; DJ Beerling; A  Berger; P.K Bijl; M Crucifix; R DeConto; S. Drijfhout; A Fedorov; Gavin L Foster; A Gonopolski; J Hansen; H Honisch; H Hooghiemstra; M Huber; P Huybers; D Knutti; DW Lea; L Lourens; Dan J Lunt; V Masson-Demotte; M Medina-Elizalde; BL Otto-Bliesner; M Pagani; H Palike; D.L Renssen; M Royer; Mark Siddall; Paul J Valdes; JC Zachos; R. Zeebe

Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity

EJ Rohling, A Sluijs, H.A Dijkstra, P Kohler, RSW van de Wal, A.S Von Der Heydt, DJ Beerling, A Berger, P.K Bijl, M Crucifix, R DeConto, S. Drijfhout, A Fedorov, Gavin L Foster, A Gonopolski, J Hansen, H Honisch, H Hooghiemstra, M Huber, P HuybersD Knutti, DW Lea, L Lourens, Dan J Lunt, V Masson-Demotte, M Medina-Elizalde, BL Otto-Bliesner, M Pagani, H Palike, D.L Renssen, M Royer, Mark Siddall, Paul J Valdes, JC Zachos, R. Zeebe

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Abstract

Many palaeoclimate studies have quantified pre-anthropogenic climate change to calculate climate sensitivity (equilibrium temperature change in response to radiative forcing change), but a lack of consistent methodologies produces a wide range of estimates and hinders comparability of results. Here we present a stricter approach, to improve intercomparison of palaeoclimate sensitivity estimates in a manner compatible with equilibrium projections for future climate change. Over the past 65 million years, this reveals a climate sensitivity (in K W−1 m2) of 0.3–1.9 or 0.6–1.3 at 95% or 68% probability, respectively. The latter implies a warming of 2.2–4.8 K per doubling of atmospheric CO2, which agrees with IPCC estimates.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	683-691
Journal	Nature
Volume	491
Publication status	Published - 28 Nov 2012

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Ice sheet and climate interaction - Implications for Coastal Engineering
Siddall, M. (Principal Investigator), Payne, A. J. (Co-Investigator), Richards, D. A. (Co-Investigator), Bamber, J. L. (Co-Investigator), Valdes, P. J. (Co-Investigator), Lunt, D. (Co-Investigator), Carlson, A. (Collaborator), Keller, K. (Collaborator), Alley, R. B. (Collaborator), England, J. (Collaborator), Svendsen, J. I. (Collaborator), Mangerud, J. (Collaborator), Nicholls, R. (Collaborator), Haywood, A. (Collaborator), Pattiaratchi, C. (Collaborator), Haigh, I. (Collaborator), Mitrovica, J. (Collaborator), Clark, P. (Collaborator), Abe-Ouchi, A. (Collaborator), Yokoyama, Y. (Collaborator), Lambeck, K. (Collaborator), Henderson, G. (Collaborator), Milne, G. (Collaborator) & Bard, E. (Collaborator)
1/12/11 → 1/12/12
Project: Research

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Rohling, EJ., Sluijs, A., Dijkstra, H. A., Kohler, P., van de Wal, RSW., Von Der Heydt, A. S., Beerling, DJ., Berger, A., Bijl, P. K., Crucifix, M., DeConto, R., Drijfhout, S., Fedorov, A., Foster, G. L., Gonopolski, A., Hansen, J., Honisch, H., Hooghiemstra, H., Huber, M., ... Zeebe, R. (2012). Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity. Nature, 491, 683-691. http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v491/n7426/full/nature11574.html#/group-1

@article{c32af3c74524486e9b46a32c6c3fb25a,

title = "Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity",

abstract = "Many palaeoclimate studies have quantified pre-anthropogenic climate change to calculate climate sensitivity (equilibrium temperature change in response to radiative forcing change), but a lack of consistent methodologies produces a wide range of estimates and hinders comparability of results. Here we present a stricter approach, to improve intercomparison of palaeoclimate sensitivity estimates in a manner compatible with equilibrium projections for future climate change. Over the past 65 million years, this reveals a climate sensitivity (in K W−1 m2) of 0.3–1.9 or 0.6–1.3 at 95% or 68% probability, respectively. The latter implies a warming of 2.2–4.8 K per doubling of atmospheric CO2, which agrees with IPCC estimates. ",

author = "EJ Rohling and A Sluijs and H.A Dijkstra and P Kohler and {van de Wal}, RSW and {Von Der Heydt}, A.S and DJ Beerling and A Berger and P.K Bijl and M Crucifix and R DeConto and S. Drijfhout and A Fedorov and Foster, {Gavin L} and A Gonopolski and J Hansen and H Honisch and H Hooghiemstra and M Huber and P Huybers and D Knutti and DW Lea and L Lourens and Lunt, {Dan J} and V Masson-Demotte and M Medina-Elizalde and BL Otto-Bliesner and M Pagani and H Palike and D.L Renssen and M Royer and Mark Siddall and Valdes, {Paul J} and JC Zachos and R. Zeebe",

year = "2012",

month = nov,

day = "28",

language = "English",

volume = "491",

pages = "683--691",

journal = "Nature",

issn = "0028-0836",

publisher = "Springer Nature",

}

Rohling, EJ, Sluijs, A, Dijkstra, HA, Kohler, P, van de Wal, RSW, Von Der Heydt, AS, Beerling, DJ, Berger, A, Bijl, PK, Crucifix, M, DeConto, R, Drijfhout, S, Fedorov, A, Foster, GL, Gonopolski, A, Hansen, J, Honisch, H, Hooghiemstra, H, Huber, M, Huybers, P, Knutti, D, Lea, DW, Lourens, L, Lunt, DJ, Masson-Demotte, V, Medina-Elizalde, M, Otto-Bliesner, BL, Pagani, M, Palike, H, Renssen, DL, Royer, M, Siddall, M, Valdes, PJ, Zachos, JC & Zeebe, R 2012, 'Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity', Nature, vol. 491, pp. 683-691. <http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v491/n7426/full/nature11574.html#/group-1>

TY - JOUR

T1 - Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity

AU - Rohling, EJ

AU - Sluijs, A

AU - Dijkstra, H.A

AU - Kohler, P

AU - van de Wal, RSW

AU - Von Der Heydt, A.S

AU - Beerling, DJ

AU - Berger, A

AU - Bijl, P.K

AU - Crucifix, M

AU - DeConto, R

AU - Drijfhout, S.

AU - Fedorov, A

AU - Foster, Gavin L

AU - Gonopolski, A

AU - Hansen, J

AU - Honisch, H

AU - Hooghiemstra, H

AU - Huber, M

AU - Huybers, P

AU - Knutti, D

AU - Lea, DW

AU - Lourens, L

AU - Lunt, Dan J

AU - Masson-Demotte, V

AU - Medina-Elizalde, M

AU - Otto-Bliesner, BL

AU - Pagani, M

AU - Palike, H

AU - Renssen, D.L

AU - Royer, M

AU - Siddall, Mark

AU - Valdes, Paul J

AU - Zachos, JC

AU - Zeebe, R.

PY - 2012/11/28

Y1 - 2012/11/28

N2 - Many palaeoclimate studies have quantified pre-anthropogenic climate change to calculate climate sensitivity (equilibrium temperature change in response to radiative forcing change), but a lack of consistent methodologies produces a wide range of estimates and hinders comparability of results. Here we present a stricter approach, to improve intercomparison of palaeoclimate sensitivity estimates in a manner compatible with equilibrium projections for future climate change. Over the past 65 million years, this reveals a climate sensitivity (in K W−1 m2) of 0.3–1.9 or 0.6–1.3 at 95% or 68% probability, respectively. The latter implies a warming of 2.2–4.8 K per doubling of atmospheric CO2, which agrees with IPCC estimates.

AB - Many palaeoclimate studies have quantified pre-anthropogenic climate change to calculate climate sensitivity (equilibrium temperature change in response to radiative forcing change), but a lack of consistent methodologies produces a wide range of estimates and hinders comparability of results. Here we present a stricter approach, to improve intercomparison of palaeoclimate sensitivity estimates in a manner compatible with equilibrium projections for future climate change. Over the past 65 million years, this reveals a climate sensitivity (in K W−1 m2) of 0.3–1.9 or 0.6–1.3 at 95% or 68% probability, respectively. The latter implies a warming of 2.2–4.8 K per doubling of atmospheric CO2, which agrees with IPCC estimates.

M3 - Article (Academic Journal)

AN - SCOPUS:84870265706

SN - 0028-0836

VL - 491

SP - 683

EP - 691

JO - Nature

JF - Nature

ER -

Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity

Abstract

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UN SDGs

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Ice sheet and climate interaction - Implications for Coastal Engineering

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