Measurement error and estimates of population extinction risk

JM McNamara, KC Harding

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle (Academic Journal)peer-review

21 Citations (Scopus)


It is common to estimate the extinction probability for a vulnerable population using methods that are based on the mean and variance of the long-term population growth rate. The numerical values of these two parameters are estimated from time series of population censuses. However, the proportion of a population that is registered at each census is typically not constant but will vary among years because of stochastic factors such as weather conditions at the time of sampling. Here, we analyse how such sampling errors influence estimates of extinction risk and find sampling errors to produce two opposite effects. Measurement errors lead to an exaggerated overall variance, but also introduce negative autocorrelations in the time series (which means that estimates of annual growth rates tend to alternate in size). If time series data are treated properly these two effects exactly counter balance. We advocate routinely incorporating a measure of among year correlations in estimating population extinction risk.
Translated title of the contributionMeasurement error and estimates of population extinction risk
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)16 - 20
JournalEcology Letters
Volume7 (1)
Publication statusPublished - Jan 2004

Bibliographical note

Publisher: Blackwell Publishing Ltd
Other identifier: IDS number 753XW


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