Model-Based Network Meta-Analysis: A Framework for Evidence Synthesis of Clinical Trial Data

David Mawdsley, Meg Bennetts, Sofia Dias, Martin Boucher, Nicky Welton

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle (Academic Journal)peer-review

28 Citations (Scopus)
358 Downloads (Pure)


Model-based meta-analysis (MBMA) is increasingly used in drug development to inform decision making and future trial designs, through the use of complex dose and/or time course models. Network Meta-Analysis (NMA) is increasingly being used by reimbursement agencies to estimate a set of coherent relative treatment effects for multiple treatments that respect the randomization within the trials. However, NMAs typically either consider different doses completely independently or lump them together, with few examples of models for dose. We propose a framework, Model Based Network Meta-Analysis (MBNMA), that combines both approaches, that respects randomization, allows estimation and prediction for multiple agents and a range of doses, using plausible physiological dose-response models. We illustrate our approach with an example comparing the efficacies of triptans for migraine relief. This uses a binary endpoint although we note that the model can be easily modified for other outcome types.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)393-401
Number of pages9
JournalCPT: Pharmacometrics and Systems Pharmacology
Issue number8
Early online date1 Aug 2016
Publication statusPublished - Aug 2016

Structured keywords

  • ConDuCT-II


  • Network meta-analysis
  • model-based meta-analysis
  • dose-response
  • drug-development
  • migraine
  • triptans


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