Modeling Conflict Dynamics with Spatiotemporal Data

Andrew Zammit-Mangion, Michael Dewar, Visakan Kadirkamanathan, Anaid Flesken, Guido Sanguinetti

Research output: Book/ReportAuthored book


This authored monograph presents the use of dynamic spatiotemporal modeling tools for the identification of complex underlying processes in conflict, such as diffusion, relocation, heterogeneous escalation, and volatility. The authors use ideas from statistics, signal processing, and ecology, and provide a predictive framework which is able to assimilate data and give confidence estimates on the predictions.
The book also demonstrates the methods on the WikiLeaks Afghan War Diary, the results showing that this approach allows deeper insights into conflict dynamics and allows a strikingly statistically accurate forward prediction of armed opposition group activity in 2010, based solely on data from preceding years. The target audience primarily comprises researchers and practitioners in the involved fields but the book may also be beneficial for graduate students.
Original languageEnglish
PublisherSpringer Verlag
Number of pages90
ISBN (Print)3319010379
Publication statusPublished - 2013

Publication series

NameSpringerBriefs in Applied Sciences and Technology / SpringerBriefs in Mathematical Methods


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