Modelling and forecasting daily electricity load via curve linear regression

Haeran Cho*, Yannig Goude, Xavier Brossat, Qiwei Yao

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference Contribution (Conference Proceeding)

3 Citations (Scopus)
264 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

In this paper, we discuss the problem of short-term electricity load forecasting by regarding electricity load on each day as a curve. The dependence between successive daily loads and other relevant factors such as temperature, is modelled via curve linear regression where both the response and the regressor are functional (curves). The key ingredient of the proposed method is the dimension reduction based on the singular value decomposition in a Hilbert space, which reduces the curve linear regression problem to several ordinary (i.e. scalar) linear regression problems. This method has previously been adopted in the hybrid approach proposed by Cho et al. (J Am Stat Assoc 108:7-21, 2013) for the same purpose, where the curve linear regression modelling was applied to the data after the trend and the seasonality were removed by a generalised additive model fitted at the weekly level. We show that classifying the successive daily loads prior to curve linear regression removes the necessity of such a two-stage approach as well as resulting in reducing the forecasting error by a great margin. The proposed methodology is illustrated using the electricity load dataset collected between 2007 and mid-2012, on which it is compared to the hybrid approach and other available competitors. Finally, various ways for improving the forecasting performance of the curve linear regression technique are discussed.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationModeling and Stochastic Learning for Forecasting in High Dimensions
Subtitle of host publicationContributions from the International Workshop on Industry Practices for Forecasting (June 5-7, 2013, Paris, France)
EditorsAnestis Antoniadis, Jean-Michel Poggi, Xavier Brossat
PublisherSpringer
Pages35-54
Number of pages20
Volume217
ISBN (Electronic)9783319187327
ISBN (Print)9783319187310
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 4 Jun 2015
Event2nd Workshop on Industry and Practices for Forecasting, WIPFOR 2013 - Paris, France
Duration: 5 Jun 20137 Jun 2013

Publication series

NameLectute Notes in Statistics
PublisherSpringer International Publishing
Volume217
ISSN (Print)0930-0325
ISSN (Electronic)2197-7186

Conference

Conference2nd Workshop on Industry and Practices for Forecasting, WIPFOR 2013
CountryFrance
CityParis
Period5/06/137/06/13

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